Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Rua Dom Manuel de Medeiros, s/n, 52171-900 Recife, PE, Brazil.
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação da Biodiversidade, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Campus Soane Nazaré de Andrade, Rod. Jorge Amado, Km 16, 45662-000 Ilhéus, BA, Brazil.
An Acad Bras Cienc. 2024 Oct 4;96(suppl 1):e20231211. doi: 10.1590/0001-3765202420231211. eCollection 2024.
Climate change is a global concern, with far-reaching implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. Understanding impact on species distribution is crucial for effective conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil and estimate the presence of climate suitability within protected areas in the future. We used ecological niche models to assess the potential distribution of 11 endemic species, providing predictions of current and future scenarios using an optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenario. The results revealed that in the optimistic scenario, 45% of the species may experience a partial reduction in their potential distribution range by 2100, and this percentage increases to 54% in the pessimistic scenario. Other species, on the other hand, will increase their potential distribution. The climatically suitable area for most species will be inserted in some protected areas, but species with limited current distribution and decreasing potential range must be prioritized for conservation. This study provides valuable information about the future potential distribution of endemic species of Manihot.
气候变化是一个全球性问题，对生物多样性和生态系统有着深远的影响。了解气候变化对物种分布的影响对于制定有效的保护策略至关重要。本研究旨在评估气候变化对巴西东北部特有物种 Manihot 潜在分布的影响，并预测未来保护区内气候适宜性的存在。我们使用生态位模型评估了 11 种特有物种的潜在分布，使用乐观和悲观的气候变化情景对当前和未来情景进行了预测。结果表明，在乐观情景下，到 2100 年，45%的物种的潜在分布范围可能会部分缩小，而在悲观情景下，这一比例将增加到 54%。另一方面，其他物种的潜在分布范围将会增加。大多数物种的气候适宜区将被纳入一些保护区，但对于当前分布范围有限且潜在分布范围缩小的物种，必须优先考虑保护。本研究提供了关于 Manihot 特有物种未来潜在分布的有价值的信息。
