Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium.
UMR CNRS 7058 "Ecologie et dynamique des systèmes anthropisés" (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.
Science. 2024 Oct 11;386(6718):193-198. doi: 10.1126/science.ado0878. Epub 2024 Oct 10.
Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.
气候变化通常被认为会导致物种向两极迁移。然而,其他环境变化可能会以出人意料的方式影响物种的地理分布。在这里,我们量化了欧洲森林植物分布的多十年变化,并将这些变化与森林生物多样性变化的关键驱动因素联系起来:气候变化、大气沉积(氮和硫)和森林冠层动态。令人惊讶的是,向西的分布转移的可能性是向北的两倍多。不是气候变化,而是氮介导的定居事件,可能是过去酸化沉积恢复的结果,这最好地解释了向西的运动。生物多样性再分配模式似乎很复杂,更有可能是由几种环境变化的相互作用驱动的,而不是仅仅由于气候变化的单独影响。