Lu Zongran, Wang Guidong, Shao Yuqing, Yan Lanmeng, Huang Ling, Fan Zheng, Han Shuang, Ren Xia, Han Rongchun, Zhang Chunhong, Ou Jinmei, Tong Xiaohui
School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Xinzhan District, Hefei, 230012, China.
Affiliated Taihe Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Taihe, 236600, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 15;15(1):29945. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15693-3.
The combined effects of climate change and human activities are reshaping species distributions, with many valuable plant species also being affected. This study uses the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model to assess the current and future distribution of Lophatherum gracile Brongn. in China under different environmental and anthropogenic scenarios. A dataset comprising 142 occurrence records and 13 selected environmental variables, including bioclimatic, soil, and solar radiation factors, was used to predict suitable habitats. The model achieved high accuracy (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.7, CBI > 0.7), with precipitation during the driest month, elevation, and soil saturation identified as key factors influencing habitat suitability. The results indicate that under current conditions, L. gracile is predominantly distributed in southern China, including provinces such as Hunan, Guangxi, and Fujian. Future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) predict significant shifts in habitat suitability, with an overall reduction in highly suitable areas and a westward shift in the distribution centroid. Human activities exacerbate habitat fragmentation, resulting in a 2.18% reduction in suitable areas. These findings underscore the vulnerability of L. gracile to both environmental and anthropogenic pressures, highlighting the need for targeted conservation strategies. This research provides a scientific foundation for the conservation of L. gracile and informs adaptive management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and human disturbance.
气候变化和人类活动的综合影响正在重塑物种分布，许多有价值的植物物种也受到了影响。本研究使用最大熵（Maxent）模型，评估在不同环境和人为情景下，淡竹叶在中国当前和未来的分布情况。利用一个包含142个出现记录和13个选定环境变量的数据集来预测适宜栖息地，这些变量包括生物气候、土壤和太阳辐射因素。该模型具有较高的准确性（AUC > 0.9，TSS > 0.7，CBI > 0.7），其中最干旱月份的降水量、海拔和土壤饱和度被确定为影响栖息地适宜性的关键因素。结果表明，在当前条件下，淡竹叶主要分布在中国南方，包括湖南、广西和福建等省份。未来气候情景（SSP245和SSP585）预测栖息地适宜性将发生显著变化，高度适宜区域总体减少，分布中心向西转移。人类活动加剧了栖息地破碎化，导致适宜区域减少了2.18%。这些发现强调了淡竹叶对环境和人为压力的脆弱性，突出了制定针对性保护策略的必要性。本研究为淡竹叶的保护提供了科学依据，并为减轻气候变化和人类干扰的不利影响的适应性管理策略提供了参考。
