Raile Eric D, Haines Pavielle, Raile Amber N W, Shanahan Elizabeth A, Parker David C W
Department of Political Science, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA.
Department of Politics and Philosophy, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA.
Risk Anal. 2024 Oct 14. doi: 10.1111/risa.17654.
The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic-related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co-partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co-partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan-tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self-identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self-identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.
在美国,政治身份成为政治两极分化基础的方式,使精英阶层能够迅速将冲突扩展到新的议题领域。此外,政治两极分化的信息环境中所使用的认知机制和捷径类型,与风险认知中使用的一些机制和捷径相似。因此,政治精英可能很容易制造党派风险立场,这在很大程度上是通过以政治为导向的风险社会放大效应实现的。新冠疫情为检验有关这种风险政治的预测提供了一个自然实验。在2020年4月疫情开始时以及2020年9月,我们通过民意调查询问了与疫情相关的观点、行为和政策方面的问题。我们的数据和分析主要集中在一个州,部分分析扩展到了四个州。我们首先展示了一方面政治党派认同与另一方面对同党派精英的支持、对党派信息来源的使用以及对同党派政策的支持之间的紧密联系。然后,我们发现有证据表明疫情风险立场与党派信息来源相对应,并找到了一种涉及对精英线索进行党派色彩评价的机制的支持证据。党派风险立场很快成为政治支持和观点的更大极化结构的一部分。最后,我们的证据总体表明,与疫情相关的党派风险立场随着时间的推移而凝聚并强化。总体而言,虽然自我认同为民主党人的人一直将新冠病毒视为主要威胁,但自我认同为共和党人的人很快转向了对他们自由和经济的威胁。