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经济增长、可再生能源利用、城市化、工业化、旅游业、绿色供应链管理与二氧化碳之间的动态联系

The dynamic nexus between economic growth, renewable energy use, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, green supply chain management, and CO.

作者信息

Wang Jian Chen, Qu Min, Xu Tian Pei, Choi Sujeong

机构信息

Institute for Sustainable Development, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macua, 999078, China.

Bussiness School, Zhuhai College of Science and Technology, Zhuhai, 519041, Guangdong, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Sep 18;10(19):e38061. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38061. eCollection 2024 Oct 15.

Abstract

Since 2012, China has pursued an "ecological civilization" policy to promote green energy, increase environmental protection, and transition to more sustainable growth models. The complicated positive trends in energy consumption, more sustainable economic growth, and ecological management are obscured by China's persistent, significant dependence on fossil fuels, particularly coal. The study aims to analyze how renewable energy use in China affects carbon dioxide emissions and how those impacts change over time, as well as urbanization, industrialization, tourism, and green supply chain management. The DOLS dynamic system method used historical data from 1995 to 2022. The DOLS results show a positive and statistically significant economic growth coefficient in the long term, suggesting that an increase of only one percent in CO₂ emissions rise would be proportional to a surge in economic growth. Furthermore, using renewable energy sources correlates with long-term sustainability negatively and significantly. The results show reducing CO₂ emissions and boosting renewable energy use by 1 %. Furthermore, the long-run coefficients for industrialization and urbanization are positive and statistically significant, indicating that a 1 % increase in either component results in a comparable increase in CO₂ emissions. Sustainable logistics and tourism have negative and statistically significant coefficients, meaning that a one percent increase will gradually decrease carbon dioxide emissions. The estimated findings hold up when using other estimators, such as the commonly used co-integrating regression (CCR) strategy and fully modified least squares (FMOLS). When Granger causality is coupled, the test also catches the variables' causal link. test. To achieve environmental sustainability, the essay suggests using robust regulatory policy tools to curb ecological deterioration.

摘要

自2012年以来,中国推行了“生态文明”政策,以促进绿色能源发展、加强环境保护,并向更可持续的增长模式转型。尽管中国在能源消费、更可持续的经济增长和生态管理方面呈现出复杂的积极趋势,但该国对化石燃料,尤其是煤炭的持续且严重依赖却掩盖了这些趋势。本研究旨在分析中国可再生能源的使用如何影响二氧化碳排放,以及这些影响如何随时间变化,同时还涉及城市化、工业化、旅游业和绿色供应链管理。动态最小二乘法(DOLS)动态系统方法使用了1995年至2022年的历史数据。DOLS结果显示,从长期来看,经济增长系数为正且具有统计学意义,这表明二氧化碳排放量仅增长1%将与经济增长的激增成正比。此外,使用可再生能源与长期可持续性呈负相关且具有显著性。结果表明,将二氧化碳排放量减少并将可再生能源的使用提高1%。此外,工业化和城市化的长期系数为正且具有统计学意义,这表明这两个因素中任何一个增长1%都会导致二氧化碳排放量相应增加。可持续物流和旅游业的系数为负且具有统计学意义,这意味着增长1%将逐步减少二氧化碳排放量。当使用其他估计方法时,如常用的协整回归(CCR)策略和完全修正最小二乘法(FMOLS),估计结果依然成立。当结合格兰杰因果关系时,该检验也能捕捉到变量之间的因果联系。为实现环境可持续性,本文建议使用强有力的监管政策工具来遏制生态恶化。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9513/11471471/2f6fdff68fd7/gr1.jpg

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