Browner W S
Am J Epidemiol. 1986 Jan;123(1):143-53. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114208.
Most studies of the etiology and prevention of disease do not adequately address the quantitative implications of their findings for the population. This report presents a method of combining observational and experimental data to estimate the overall impact of a risk factor modification program. After the terminology is introduced, the model is applied to a categoric risk factor (serum cholesterol) for coronary heart disease, with data from the Pooling Project (1964-1974) and the Lipid Research Clinics studies (1972-1983). With optimistic assumptions about the impact of cholestyramine treatment at various cholesterol levels, about 5% of the cases of coronary heart disease in middle-aged men in the United States could be prevented; more realistic assumptions reduce that estimate by more than half. The model emphasizes the importance of estimating and comparing the overall impact of available risk factor modification programs when planning public health strategies.
大多数关于疾病病因和预防的研究并未充分探讨其研究结果对人群的量化影响。本报告提出了一种结合观察性和实验性数据的方法，以估计风险因素修正计划的总体影响。在引入术语后，该模型应用于冠心病的一个分类风险因素（血清胆固醇），使用了合并项目（1964 - 1974年）和脂质研究诊所研究（1972 - 1983年）的数据。基于对不同胆固醇水平下考来烯胺治疗效果的乐观假设，美国中年男性中约5%的冠心病病例可得到预防；而更现实的假设使这一估计减少了一半以上。该模型强调了在规划公共卫生策略时估计和比较现有风险因素修正计划总体影响的重要性。
