High-throughput molecular simulations of SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain mutants quantify correlations between dynamic fluctuations and protein expression.

Prediction of protein fitness from computational modeling is an area of active research in rational protein design. Here, we investigated whether protein fluctuations computed from molecular dynamics simulations can be used to predict the expression levels of SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) mutants determined in the deep mutational scanning experiment of Starr et al. [Science (New York, N.Y.) 2022, 377, 420] Specifically, we performed more than 0.7 milliseconds of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of 557 mutant RBDs in triplicate to achieve statistical significance under various simulation conditions. Our results show modest but significant anticorrelation in the range [-0.4, -0.3] between expression and RBD protein flexibility. A simple linear regression machine learning model achieved correlation coefficients in the range [0.7, 0.8], thus outperforming MD-based models, but required about 25 mutations at each residue position for training.