Fathelrahman Eihab, Osman Raeda, Hoag Dana Loyd Keske, Sixt Gregory N, Strzepek Kenneth
Department of Integrative Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, United Arab Emirates University (UAEU), Al-Ain P.O. Box 15551, United Arab Emirates.
Agricultural and Resource Economics Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
Foods. 2024 Sep 30;13(19):3124. doi: 10.3390/foods13193124.
India, the world's leading rice exporter, banned the export of non-Basmati white rice, accounting for 25% of its total exports (or 10% of the global rice trade). The ban aims to ensure availability to domestic Indian consumers and reduce domestic market prices, impacting global rice market accessibility, consumers, and producers across twelve regions. The study utilized the global simulation model (GSIM) to analyze the effects of trade restrictions on industries. The model uses national product differentiation to assess trade policy changes at global, regional, or national scales. It examined importer and exporter effects on trade values, tariff revenues, exporter surplus, and importer surplus. It found that India's Voluntary Export Restraint (VER) ban on non-Basmati rice resulted in a higher local price and a negative global net welfare impact of USD 1.7 billion. The losses decreased to USD 1.4 billion when importing countries responded by reducing rice import tariffs by 25% and USD 1.1 billion when importing countries reduced tariffs by 75%. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Cooperation Council regions were most affected. The study also found minimal impact on consumer surplus in India due to inelastic rice demand.
印度是全球主要的大米出口国，该国禁止了非巴斯马蒂白米的出口，此类大米占其出口总量的25%（或全球大米贸易量的10%）。该禁令旨在确保印度国内消费者的供应，并降低国内市场价格，这对全球大米市场的可及性以及十二个地区的消费者和生产者都产生了影响。该研究利用全球模拟模型（GSIM）来分析贸易限制对各行业的影响。该模型运用国家产品差异化来评估全球、区域或国家层面的贸易政策变化。它考察了进口商和出口商对贸易价值、关税收入、出口商盈余和进口商盈余的影响。研究发现，印度对非巴斯马蒂大米的自愿出口限制（VER）禁令导致当地价格上涨，全球净福利产生了17亿美元的负面影响。当进口国将大米进口关税降低25%时，损失降至14亿美元；当进口国将关税降低75%时，损失为11亿美元。撒哈拉以南非洲、中东、北非以及海湾合作委员会地区受到的影响最大。该研究还发现，由于大米需求缺乏弹性，印度国内消费者剩余受到的影响微乎其微。
