Savinkina Alexandra, Weinberger Daniel M, Toscano Cristiana M, De Oliveira Lucia H
Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Institute of Tropical Pathology and Public Health, Federal University of Goias, Goiania, GO, Brazil.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2024 Sep 10;11(10):ofae528. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofae528. eCollection 2024 Oct.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021-May 2022).
Publicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and older.
After accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that >1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in ∼610 000 to 2.61 million deaths averted.
This study represents the first large-scale, multicenter estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics.
2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对全球健康产生了重大影响，全球数百万人丧生。疫苗接种已成为减轻该疾病影响的关键策略。本研究旨在估计在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（LAC）疫苗接种推广的头一年半（2021年1月至2022年5月）期间通过接种疫苗避免的死亡人数。
利用公开可得的COVID-19死亡数据和疫苗接种率来估计LAC地区通过接种疫苗避免的死亡总数。根据死亡人数、接种人数和疫苗效力的估计值，计算出未接种疫苗情况下观察到的反事实估计死亡人数。疫苗效力估计值来自已发表的研究。分析聚焦于LAC地区的17个国家，并考虑18岁及以上的成年人。
在考虑漏报情况后，分析估计在研究期间选定国家中由COVID-19导致的死亡人数超过149万。若未接种疫苗，模型估计COVID-19死亡人数将在210万至411万之间。因此，疫苗接种工作避免了约61万至261万例死亡。
本研究是对LAC地区人群层面疫苗对COVID-19死亡率影响的首次大规模、多中心估计。研究结果强调了及时和广泛接种疫苗在避免COVID-19死亡方面的重大影响。这些结果为该地区旨在抗击流行性传染病和未来大流行的疫苗接种计划提供了关键支持。
