McGlashan T H
Am J Psychiatry. 1986 Jan;143(1):50-5. doi: 10.1176/ajp.143.1.50.
Predictors of outcome were identified for 163 patients with DSM-III schizophrenia divided into three cohorts by length of follow-up interval: 0-9 years (N = 57), 10-19 years (N = 59), and 20 years or more (N = 47). The most powerful variables predicting outcome differed between follow-up intervals. Characteristics of premorbid functioning were most influential in the first decade of follow-up, family functioning emerged as important in the second decade, and family genetics influenced the third decade and beyond. Signs and symptoms proved predictive in consistent ways for midrange and longer-term outcomes. The results demonstrate significant variability in both the type and strength of relevant predictors depending on follow-up length.
对163例DSM-III精神分裂症患者的预后预测因素进行了识别，这些患者根据随访间隔时间分为三个队列：0至9年（N = 57）、10至19年（N = 59）和20年及以上（N = 47）。预测预后的最有力变量在不同随访间隔中有所不同。病前功能特征在随访的第一个十年中影响最大，家庭功能在第二个十年中变得重要，而家族遗传学在第三个十年及以后产生影响。症状和体征对中期和长期预后的预测方式一致。结果表明，根据随访时间长短，相关预测因素的类型和强度存在显著差异。
