McGlashan T H
Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1986 Feb;43(2):167-76. doi: 10.1001/archpsyc.1986.01800020077010.
Predictors of long-term outcome were identified among a sample (n = 163) of largely chronic DSM-III schizophrenic patients (80% ill for more than two years) from the Chestnut Lodge follow-up study using three methods of analysis (correlation, multiple regression, and discriminant function). Predictors accounted for approximately one third of the outcome variance across six outcome dimensions. The following variables regularly (ie, individually and as components in multivariate equations) predicted better global outcome: less family history of schizophrenia, better premorbid instrumental functioning (interests and skills), more affective signs and symptoms (especially depression) in the manifest psychopathology, and absence of psychotic assaultiveness.
在栗树屋随访研究中，从大量慢性DSM-III精神分裂症患者样本（n = 163）（80%患病超过两年）中，运用三种分析方法（相关性分析、多元回归分析和判别函数分析）确定了长期预后的预测因素。预测因素在六个预后维度中解释了约三分之一的预后方差。以下变量经常（即单独以及作为多变量方程中的组成部分）预测出更好的总体预后：精神分裂症家族史较少、病前工具性功能（兴趣和技能）较好、明显精神病理学中存在更多情感症状和体征（尤其是抑郁）以及不存在精神病性攻击性。
