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冰层融化与海平面上升——将南极洲冰盖的预计变化与新西兰奥特亚罗瓦的社区联系起来。

Melting ice and rising seas - connecting projected change in Antarctica's ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand.

作者信息

Levy Richard, Naish Timothy, Lowry Daniel, Priestley Rebecca, Winefield Rachelle, Alevropolous-Borrill Alanna, Beck Emory, Bell Rob, Blick Graeme, Dadic Ruzica, Gillies Tasman, Golledge Nicholas, Heine Zoe, Jendersie Stefan, Lawrence Judy, O'Leary Katherine, Paulik Ryan, Roberts Ceridwyn, Taitoko Mike, Trayling Natalie

机构信息

GNS Science - Te Pu Ao, Lower Hutt, New Zealand.

Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga Waka - Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.

出版信息

J R Soc N Z. 2023 Jul 23;54(4):449-472. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Changes in global mean sea level are a clear indicator of a warming climate, but local factors including land subsidence or uplift, cause changes in relative sea level that drive shoreline shifts. These local changes and their impact on coastal hazards matter to coastal communities. NZ SeaRise produced relative sea level projections for Aotearoa to include the latest global climate and Antarctic Ice Sheet research and estimates of vertical land movement at high spatial resolution. Research-informed communication to the public and planners included a web-based projections tool supplemented by written and visual narratives, and a media engagement plan. This communication, and analysis of media impact, provided a case study for audience-relevant information on sea-level rise. Information regarding shoreline change and evolving hazards, required for risk assessment, was not included in the NZ SeaRise projections. New research is needed to reduce uncertainty in future Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea level, link changes in sea surface height to our dynamic land surface and enhance communication approaches. Several examples of the required research are presented here but ongoing efforts must refine the timing and magnitude of coastline change, better define coastal hazards and risks, and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for unavoidable climate change impacts.

摘要

全球平均海平面的变化是气候变暖的一个明显指标,但包括地面沉降或隆升在内的局部因素会导致相对海平面的变化,进而推动海岸线移动。这些局部变化及其对沿海灾害的影响对沿海社区至关重要。新西兰海平面上升研究项目(NZ SeaRise)针对奥特亚罗瓦(新西兰)制作了相对海平面预测,纳入了最新的全球气候和南极冰盖研究以及高空间分辨率下的垂直地面运动估计。与公众和规划者进行的基于研究的沟通包括一个基于网络的预测工具,并辅以书面和视觉说明,以及一个媒体参与计划。这种沟通以及对媒体影响的分析,为与受众相关的海平面上升信息提供了一个案例研究。新西兰海平面上升研究项目的预测中未包括风险评估所需的有关海岸线变化和不断演变的灾害的信息。需要开展新的研究,以减少未来南极冰盖对海平面贡献的不确定性,将海面高度变化与动态陆地表面联系起来,并改进沟通方式。这里列举了一些所需研究的例子,但仍需持续努力,以完善海岸线变化的时间和幅度,更好地界定沿海灾害和风险,并为不可避免的气候变化影响制定适当的适应策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e39b/11459780/64e2b0bb4e7e/TNZR_A_2232743_F0001_OC.jpg

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