真实三维地幔粘度对南极洲对未来全球海平面贡献的影响。

The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica's contribution to future global sea levels.

作者信息

Gomez Natalya, Yousefi Maryam, Pollard David, DeConto Robert M, Sadai Shaina, Lloyd Andrew, Nyblade Andrew, Wiens Douglas A, Aster Richard C, Wilson Terry

机构信息

Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.

Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.

出版信息

Sci Adv. 2024 Aug 2;10(31):eadn1470. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn1470.

DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adn1470

PMID:39093962

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11296330/

Abstract

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica's contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

摘要

南极冰盖（AIS）对气候变化的响应是预测未来海平面时最大的不确定性因素。本文通过将一个包含三维地球结构的全球冰川均衡调整模型与一个动态冰盖模型相耦合，评估了三维（3D）地球结构对南极冰盖及未来全球海平面的影响。我们发现，考虑三维粘性效应会使海洋区域出现快速隆升，并减少低排放温室气体情景下预计的冰损失，在未来几个世纪里将南极洲对全球海平面上升的贡献降低多达约40%。在高排放情景下，冰的消退速度超过隆升速度，南极海洋区域的水体排出加剧了海平面上升。