Strauss Benjamin H, Orton Philip M, Bittermann Klaus, Buchanan Maya K, Gilford Daniel M, Kopp Robert E, Kulp Scott, Massey Chris, Moel Hans de, Vinogradov Sergey
Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 May 18;12(1):2720. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22838-1.
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B-$14.0B, 5th-95th percentiles) of Sandy's damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40-131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.
2012年,飓风桑迪袭击了美国东海岸,造成大面积沿海地区洪水泛滥,报告的经济损失超过600亿美元。气候变化对风暴本身的潜在影响一直存在争议,但人为气候变化导致的海平面上升更明显地加剧了损失。为了量化这种影响,我们在此模拟了实际发生的水位和损失情况,以及在一系列较低海平面情况下(对应于不同归因海平面上升估计值)可能发生的水位和损失情况。我们发现,桑迪造成的损失中约有81亿美元(47亿至140亿美元,第5至95百分位数)可归因于气候介导的人为海平面上升,洪水区域的扩大还影响了另外7.1万人(4万至13.1万人)。这里展示的通用方法可应用于其他过去和未来沿海风暴的影响评估。