Surgical Services Louis Stokes Cleveland Cleveland OH.
Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine Cleveland OH.
J Am Heart Assoc. 2024 Nov 5;13(21):e035922. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.124.035922. Epub 2024 Oct 25.
As future cardiovascular disease mortality trends have public health implications, we aimed to project ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and heart failure (HF) mortality rates for adults (40-79 years).
In this population-level study, we linked the yearly mortality rates (per 100 000 US residents) (2000-2019) with IHD, CeVD, or HF as the primary cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research with the midyear US population estimates (2000-2035) for adults (40-79 years). We calculated the observed age-standardized mortality rates (2000-2019) (per 100 000 residents) (aSMR) and fitted Bayesian age-period-cohort models to project aSMR for IHD, CeVD, and HF up to 2035 in the United States. Between 2019 (last year of observed data) and 2035 (last year of projected results), the US population (40-79 years) will increase by 16% and age. The IHD aSMR will reduce from 111.9 (in 2019) to 81.8 (66.7-96.9) in 2035, an effect observed for all age groups. The CeVD aSMR will remain comparable between 2019 (37.4) and 2035 (38.6 [30.7-46.5]). The HF aSMR will increase from 16.5 in 2019 to reach 30.9 (13-48.8) in 2035; such increases were observed in all age groups.
In the United States, between 2020 and 2035, the aSMR for IHD is expected to decrease, for CeVD will remain stable, and for HF will increase substantially. These data can inform resource allocation for future public health initiatives.
由于未来心血管疾病死亡率趋势具有公共卫生意义，我们旨在预测成年人（40-79 岁）的缺血性心脏病（IHD）、脑血管疾病（CeVD）和心力衰竭（HF）死亡率。
在这项人群水平研究中，我们将每年的死亡率（每 10 万美国居民）（2000-2019 年）与 IHD、CeVD 或 HF 作为疾病控制和预防中心的主要死因联系起来。来自疾病控制和预防中心的广泛在线数据用于流行病学研究，该研究使用 2000-2035 年美国成年人（40-79 岁）的中年人口估计数。我们计算了观察到的年龄标准化死亡率（2000-2019 年）（每 10 万居民）（aSMR），并拟合了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型，以预测美国 2035 年之前 IHD、CeVD 和 HF 的 aSMR。在 2019 年（观察数据的最后一年）和 2035 年（预测结果的最后一年）之间，美国（40-79 岁）人口将增加 16%，年龄也将增加。IHD 的 aSMR 将从 2019 年的 111.9（81.8-96.9）降至 2035 年的 81.8，这一效应在所有年龄组中均观察到。2019 年（37.4）和 2035 年（38.6[30.7-46.5]）之间的 CeVD aSMR 仍将保持可比。HF 的 aSMR 将从 2019 年的 16.5 增加到 2035 年的 30.9（13-48.8）；所有年龄组都观察到这种增加。
在美国，2020 年至 2035 年期间，IHD 的 aSMR 预计将下降，CeVD 将保持稳定，HF 将大幅上升。这些数据可以为未来的公共卫生计划提供资源分配信息。
