Wang Xi-Lian, Qu Li-Hang
School of Management, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China.
Energy Economy and Management Research Center, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Oct 8;45(10):5613-5623. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202308258.
Scientific assessment of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and identification of its influencing factors are of great importance for promoting green transformation, ecological protection, and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Considering nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects； using relevant data on industrial development and energy consumption in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019； and with the help of IPCC carbon emission measurement, spatial autocorrelation, and LMDI decomposition, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from industries and industrial sectors in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed. Reasonable suggestions were put forward for reducing the carbon emissions from industries in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2019, industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin showed a fluctuating growth trend, with a decreasing growth rate. The spatial pattern changed from "low in the upstream and high in the middle and downstream" to "high and low value distribution," and the spatial difference gradually expanded. ② The high carbon industry was the most important source of industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, accounting for 96.35% of the carbon emissions between the industries with a continuous growth trend, which was a significant difference. The middle and low carbon industry carbon emissions and the total proportion was low, showing different fluctuations； nine provinces and nine industrial industries had significant spatial variability. ③ Energy structure intensity, economic scale, and population scale promoted the increase in industrial carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and energy consumption intensity had an inhibitory effect on the increase in carbon emissions. The economic scale effect was positive and significant, which offset the negative effect of energy consumption intensity. Spatial variability was observed in the contribution value of the influence effect of the factors affecting the carbon emissions of the industry in nine provinces.
对黄河流域工业碳排放进行科学评估并识别其影响因素，对于推动黄河流域绿色转型、生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义。以黄河流域九省为研究对象，利用2000—2019年黄河流域工业发展与能源消费的相关数据，借助IPCC碳排放核算、空间自相关和LMDI分解等方法，分析了黄河流域工业及工业部门碳排放的时空演变特征及影响因素，并针对黄河流域工业碳排放提出了合理建议。结果表明：①2000—2019年，黄河流域工业碳排放呈波动增长趋势，增速递减。空间格局由“上游低、中下游高”转变为“高低值分布”，空间差异逐渐扩大。②高碳行业是黄河流域工业碳排放的最重要来源，在各行业中呈持续增长态势，占碳排放总量的96.35%，差异显著。中低碳行业碳排放总量及占比均较低，呈现不同波动；九省九行业具有显著的空间变异性。③能源结构强度、经济规模和人口规模促进了黄河流域工业碳排放增加，能源消费强度对碳排放增加具有抑制作用。经济规模效应正向显著，抵消了能源消费强度的负向效应。九省工业碳排放影响因素效应贡献值存在空间变异性。
