Lu Fei, Liu Qi, Wang Pengcheng
College of Literature and History (College of Culture and Tourism), Weifang University, Weifang, 261061, Shandong, China.
Weifang Municipal Cultural and Tourism Industry Development Center, Weifang, 261061, Shandong, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 23;14(1):16988. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67628-z.
Maintaining and improving ecological resilience is of great practical significance for the Yellow River Basin to reduce potential ecological risks and deliver sustainable development. Based on the essential characteristics of evolutionary resilience, this paper developed an ecological resilience index system of "resistance-recovery-reconstruction-renewal" and calculated the ecological resilience of 75 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2021 with the improved TOPSIS method. Then the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecological resilience were analyzed using the gravity center-standard deviation ellipse, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Furthermore, the dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM) was used to investigate the influencing factors of ecological resilience. The main results are as follows: (1) The ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, and the average annual growth rate in the downstream region was larger than in the upstream and midstream regions. (2) Cities with similar levels of ecological resilience were distributed in a "large settlement, small scattered" pattern. The center of gravity shifted to the southeast, and the spatial distribution exhibited a "northwest-southeast" pattern and a trend towards an "east-west" pattern. The primary source of spatial differences was the intensity of transvariation. (3) The ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin showed significant spatial clustering, with the H-H clustering area shifting from the Hubao-Eyu urban agglomeration to the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, and the L-L clustering area mainly distributed around the Central Plains city cluster. (4) The ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin exhibited significant snowball, spillover, and siphon effects in time, space, and space-time dimensions, respectively. In the short and long term, population density and openness significantly positively affected the ecological resilience of local and surrounding cities. Urbanization had a long-term effect on ecological resilience without a short-term effect. GDP per capita and industrial structure only imparted a significant positive influence on local ecological resilience. The negative spatial spillover of the intensity of financial investment in technological innovation gradually turned into a positive effect.
维护和提升生态韧性对于黄河流域降低潜在生态风险、实现可持续发展具有重大现实意义。基于演化韧性的本质特征，本文构建了“抵抗—恢复—重构—更新”的生态韧性指标体系，并运用改进的TOPSIS法计算了2007—2021年黄河流域75个地级市的生态韧性。然后，利用重心—标准差椭圆、达格姆基尼系数分解和空间自相关分析等方法，分析了生态韧性的时空演变特征。此外，运用动态空间杜宾模型（DSDM）探究了生态韧性的影响因素。主要研究结果如下：（1）黄河流域生态韧性总体呈波动上升趋势，下游地区年均增长率大于上游和中游地区。（2）生态韧性水平相近的城市呈“大聚集、小分散”分布格局。重心向东南方向移动，空间分布呈现“西北—东南”格局且有向“东—西”格局演变的趋势。空间差异的主要来源是变异强度。（3）黄河流域生态韧性呈现显著的空间集聚性，高—高集聚区由呼包鄂榆城市群向山东半岛城市群转移，低—低集聚区主要分布在中原城市群周边。（4）黄河流域生态韧性在时间、空间和时空维度上分别呈现显著的雪球效应、溢出效应和虹吸效应。短期和长期来看，人口密度和开放度对本地及周边城市的生态韧性均有显著正向影响。城市化对生态韧性有长期影响而无短期影响。人均GDP和产业结构仅对本地生态韧性有显著正向影响。技术创新金融投资强度的负向空间溢出效应逐渐转变为正向效应。
