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基于KZ滤波技术和长短期记忆网络的上海O预测模型

[Predictive Model for O in Shanghai Based on the KZ Filtering Technique and LSTM].

作者信息

Wu Ling-Xia, An Jun-Lin, Jin Dan

机构信息

Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.

Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center, Shanghai 200235, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Oct 8;45(10):5729-5739. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202311150.

DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202311150
PMID:39455119
Abstract

In this study, a Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter was proposed to decompose the original ozone (O) sequence to improve the accuracy of ozone long-term series prediction and select relevant meteorological features. Furthermore, the enhanced maximal minimal redundancy (mRMR) feature selection technique was combined with the support vector regression (SVR) approach to select the most illuminating meteorological features. Subsequently, from May to August 2023, during high ozone concentration periods, a long short-term memory network (LSTM) was utilized to assess and predict high ozone concentration periods at the monitoring stations of Jingan (urban area), Pudong-Chuansha (suburban area), and Dianshan Lake (suburban area) in Shanghai. The results showed that pressure, temperature, humidity, boundary layer height, and wind direction were the best combinations of O baseline and short-term components, as chosen by feature screening. The values for Jingan Station, Pudong-Chuansha Station, and Dianshan Lake Station were 0.86, 0.83, and 0.85, respectively. The RMSE values were 18.26, 18.74, and 20.02 μg·m, respectively. These findings suggest that decomposing the original O sequence improved the prediction accuracy of ozone concentrations. Additionally, as indicated by the and RMSE values found for every monitoring station, feature screening preserved the model's predictive performance.

摘要

在本研究中,提出了一种科尔莫戈罗夫-祖尔本科(KZ)滤波器来分解原始臭氧(O)序列,以提高臭氧长期序列预测的准确性并选择相关气象特征。此外,将增强型最大最小冗余(mRMR)特征选择技术与支持向量回归(SVR)方法相结合,以选择最具启发性的气象特征。随后,在2023年5月至8月臭氧浓度较高的时期,利用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)对上海静安区(市区)、浦东川沙(郊区)和淀山湖(郊区)监测站的高臭氧浓度时期进行评估和预测。结果表明,通过特征筛选,气压、温度、湿度、边界层高度和风向是臭氧基线和短期成分的最佳组合。静安站、浦东川沙站和淀山湖站的 值分别为0.86、0.83和0.85。均方根误差(RMSE)值分别为18.26、18.74和20.02 μg·m 。这些发现表明,分解原始臭氧序列提高了臭氧浓度的预测准确性。此外,每个监测站的 值和RMSE值表明,特征筛选保留了模型的预测性能。

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