Operations, Information, and Decisions Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Behavioral Science Department, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Nov 12;121(46):e2400215121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2400215121. Epub 2024 Oct 28.
People often rely on numeric metrics to make decisions and form judgments. Numbers can be difficult to process, leading to their underutilization, but they are also uniquely suited to making comparisons. Do people decide differently when some dimensions of a choice are quantified and others are not? We explore this question across 21 preregistered experiments (8 in the main text, N = 9,303; 13 in supplement, N = 13,936) involving managerial, policy, and consumer decisions. Participants face choices that involve tradeoffs (e.g., choosing between employees, one of whom has a higher likelihood of advancement but lower likelihood of retention), and we randomize which dimension of each tradeoff is presented numerically and which is presented qualitatively (using verbal estimates, discrete visualizations, or continuous visualizations). We show that people systematically shift their preferences toward options that dominate on tradeoff dimensions conveyed numerically-a pattern we dub "quantification fixation." Further, we show that quantification fixation has financial consequences-it emerges in incentive-compatible hiring tasks and in charitable donation decisions. We identify one key mechanism that underlies quantification fixation and moderates its strength: When making comparative judgments, which are essential to tradeoff decisions, numeric information is more fluent than non-numeric information. Our findings suggest that when we count, we change what counts.
人们在做决策和判断时常常依赖数字指标。数字难以处理,导致其未被充分利用,但数字也非常适合进行比较。当选择的某些维度被量化而其他维度没有被量化时,人们会做出不同的决策吗?我们通过 21 项预先注册的实验(主文本中的 8 项,N=9303;补充材料中的 13 项,N=13936)来探讨这个问题,这些实验涉及管理、政策和消费者决策。参与者面临需要权衡的选择(例如,在员工之间做出选择,其中一个员工晋升的可能性更高,但保留的可能性更低),我们随机分配每个权衡的维度是用数字表示还是用文字估计、离散可视化或连续可视化表示。我们发现,人们会系统地将偏好转向用数字表示的权衡维度上占优的选项——我们称之为“量化固定”的模式。此外,我们还表明,量化固定会产生财务后果——它出现在激励相容的招聘任务和慈善捐赠决策中。我们确定了一个关键机制,该机制是量化固定的基础,并调节其强度:在进行比较判断时,数字信息比非数字信息更流畅,这对于权衡决策至关重要。我们的研究结果表明,当我们数数时,我们改变了计算的内容。