Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Department, Landscape Ecology Lab, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489, Berlin, Germany.
School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 29;14(1):25995. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-76600-w.
Mapping the production of Ecosystem Services (ES) is imperative for sustainable ecosystem management. Likewise, incorporating expert knowledge enhances ES research. Here, we calculate eight multi-temporal ES indicators for mainland Portugal using a spatial modelling approach. These indicators are then integrated into the novel ASEBIO index-Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity-which depicts a combined ES potential based on CORINE Land Cover, using a multi-criteria evaluation method with weights defined by stakeholders through an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Outputs from the modelling show how ES have changed in Portugal in relation to land use changes, including trade-offs between 1990 and 2018. The composed ASEBIO index is compared against the stakeholders' valuation of ES potential for the year 2018. The results reveal a significant mismatch between the ES potential perceived by stakeholders and the models, with stakeholder estimates being 32.8% higher on average. All the selected ES were overestimated by the stakeholders. Drought regulation and erosion prevention have the highest contrasts, while water purification, food production and recreation are the most closely aligned among both approaches. Providing the first national overview about the status of multiple ES over a 28 year-period, our findings highlight potential disparities between data-driven and stakeholder-based evaluations. Therefore, we suggest the need for integrative strategies that consider scientific models with expert knowledge for more effective ES assessments and land-use planning. This approach could help bridge the gap between data-driven models and human perspectives, resulting in more balanced and inclusive decision-making.
绘制生态系统服务（ES）的产出图对于可持续的生态系统管理至关重要。同样，纳入专家知识可以增强 ES 研究。在这里，我们使用空间建模方法计算了葡萄牙大陆的八项多时相 ES 指标。然后，这些指标被整合到新颖的 ASEBIO 指数中——生态系统服务和生物多样性评估，该指数基于 CORINE 土地覆盖，使用多标准评估方法，通过层次分析法（AHP）定义利益相关者权重，来描绘基于 ES 潜力的综合景观。建模结果显示了 ES 如何随着土地利用变化而变化，包括 1990 年至 2018 年之间的权衡。组成的 ASEBIO 指数与利益相关者对 2018 年 ES 潜力的估值进行了比较。结果表明，利益相关者对 ES 潜力的感知与模型之间存在显著差异，利益相关者的估计平均高出 32.8%。所有选定的 ES 都被利益相关者高估了。干旱调节和侵蚀预防的对比最大，而水净化、食品生产和娱乐在这两种方法中最接近。提供了 28 年来关于多种 ES 状况的第一个全国性概述，我们的研究结果突出了数据驱动和利益相关者为基础的评估之间的潜在差异。因此，我们建议需要采取综合策略，将科学模型与专家知识相结合，以进行更有效的 ES 评估和土地利用规划。这种方法可以帮助弥合数据驱动模型和人类视角之间的差距，从而实现更平衡和包容的决策。
