Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner weg, Mainz, 55128, Germany.
Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia, 2121, Cyprus.
Nat Commun. 2024 Oct 30;15(1):9379. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9.
Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously. Here we show that under a realistic scenario, end-of-century mortality could quadruple from present-day values to around 30 (95% confidence level:12-53) million people/year. While pollution-related mortality is projected to increase five-fold, temperature-related mortality will experience a seven-fold rise, making it a more important health risk factor than air pollution for at least 20% of the world's population. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement stronger climate policies to prevent future loss of life, outweighing the benefits of air quality improvements alone.
人为排放物改变了大气成分，从而影响了气候，对与空气污染和气候有关的人类健康产生了影响。空气污染和非最佳温度导致的死亡率是一个主要关注点，预计在未来气候变化和社会经济情景下会发生变化。在这项工作中，我们使用数值模拟的结果来评估长期暴露于非最佳温度和空气污染同时对死亡率的未来变化。结果表明，在一个现实的情景下，本世纪末的死亡率可能会比现在增加四倍，达到约 3000 万人/年（95%置信区间：1200-5300 万人/年）。虽然与污染有关的死亡率预计将增加五倍，但与温度有关的死亡率将增加七倍，使其成为全球至少 20%的人口的更重要的健康风险因素，超过了空气质量改善的好处。这些发现强调了迫切需要实施更强有力的气候政策，以防止未来的生命损失，这比仅仅改善空气质量的好处更为重要。
