Williams Brooke A, Beyer Hawthorne L, Fagan Matthew E, Chazdon Robin L, Schmoeller Marina, Sprenkle-Hyppolite Starry, Griscom Bronson W, Watson James E M, Tedesco Anazélia M, Gonzalez-Roglich Mariano, Daldegan Gabriel A, Bodin Blaise, Celentano Danielle, Wilson Sarah Jane, Rhodes Jonathan R, Alexandre Nikola S, Kim Do-Hyung, Bastos Diego, Crouzeilles Renato
Institute for Capacity Exchange in Environmental Decisions, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
School of Biology and Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Nature. 2024 Dec;636(8041):131-137. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-08106-4. Epub 2024 Oct 30.
Extensive forest restoration is a key strategy to meet nature-based sustainable development goals and provide multiple social and environmental benefits. Yet achieving forest restoration at scale requires cost-effective methods. Tree planting in degraded landscapes is a popular but costly forest restoration method that often results in less biodiverse forests when compared to natural regeneration techniques under similar conditions. Here we assess the current spatial distribution of pantropical natural forest (from 2000 to 2016) and use this to present a model of the potential for natural regeneration across tropical forested countries and biomes at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We estimate that an area of 215 million hectares-an area greater than the entire country of Mexico-has potential for natural forest regeneration, representing an above-ground carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 Gt C (range, 21.1-25.7 Gt) over 30 years. Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia) account for 52% of this estimated potential, showcasing the need for targeting restoration initiatives that leverage natural regeneration potential. Our results facilitate broader equitable decision-making processes that capitalize on the widespread opportunity for natural regeneration to help achieve national and global environmental agendas.
大规模森林恢复是实现基于自然的可持续发展目标并提供多种社会和环境效益的关键战略。然而，大规模实现森林恢复需要具有成本效益的方法。在退化景观中植树是一种常见但成本高昂的森林恢复方法，与类似条件下的自然更新技术相比，往往会导致森林生物多样性较低。在此，我们评估了泛热带天然林的当前空间分布（2000年至2016年），并以此建立了一个模型，以30米的空间分辨率呈现热带森林国家和生物群落自然更新的潜力。我们估计，面积达2.15亿公顷（大于整个墨西哥的面积）的区域具有天然林自然更新的潜力，在30年内地上碳固存潜力为234亿吨碳（范围为211亿至257亿吨）。五个国家（巴西、印度尼西亚、中国、墨西哥和哥伦比亚）占该估计潜力的52%，这表明需要针对利用自然更新潜力的恢复举措。我们的结果有助于推动更广泛的公平决策过程，利用自然更新的广泛机会来帮助实现国家和全球环境议程。
