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里约热内卢市的颗粒物和臭氧暴露、监管监测点位置以及社会人口差异:基于机器学习模型生成的当地空气污染估计值

Exposure to particulate matter and ozone, locations of regulatory monitors, and sociodemographic disparities in the city of Rio de Janeiro: Based on local air pollution estimates generated from machine learning models.

作者信息

Kim Honghyok, Son Ji-Young, Junger Washington, Bell Michelle L

机构信息

Division of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States.

School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States.

出版信息

Atmos Environ (1994). 2024 Apr 1;322. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120374. Epub 2024 Jan 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120374
PMID:39479408
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11523490/
Abstract

South America is underrepresented in research on air pollution exposure disparities by sociodemographic factors, although such disparities have been observed in other parts of the world. We investigated whether exposure to and information about air pollution differs by sociodemographic factors in the city of Rio de Janeiro, the second most populous city in Brazil with dense urban areas, for 2012-2017. We developed machine learning-based models to estimate daily levels of O, PM, and PM using high-dimensional datasets from satellite remote sensing, atmospheric and land variables, and land use information. Cross-validations demonstrated good agreement between the estimated levels and measurements from ground-based monitoring stations: overall of 76.8 %, 63.9 %, and 69.1 % for O, PM, and PM, respectively. We conducted univariate regression analyses to investigate whether long-term exposure to O, PM, PM and distance to regulatory monitors differs by socioeconomic indicators, the percentages of residents who were children (0-17 years) or age 65+ years in 154 neighborhoods. We also examined the number of days exceeding the Brazilian National Air Quality Standard (BNAQS). Long-term exposures to O and PM were higher in more socially deprived neighborhoods. An interquartile range (IQR) increment of the social development index (SDI) was associated with a 3.6 μg/m (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 2.9, 4.4; p-value≤0.001) decrease in O, and 0.3 μg/m (95 % CI: 0.2, 0.5; p-value = 0.010) decrease in PM. An IQR increase in the percentage of residents who are children was associated with a 4.1 μg/m (95 % CI: 3.1, 5.0; p-value≤0.001) increase in O, and 0.4 μg/m (95 % CI: 0.3, 0.6; p-value = 0.009) increase in PM. An IQR increase in the percentage of residents age ≥65was associated with a 3.3 μg/m (95 % CI: 2.4, 4.3; p-value=<0.001) decrease in O, and 0.3 μg/m (95 % CI: 0.1, 0.5; p-value = 0.058) decrease in PM. There were no apparent associations for PM. The association for daily O levels exceeding the BNAQS daily standard was 0.4 %p-0.8 %p different by the IQR of variables, indicating a 7-15 days difference in the six-year period. The association for daily PM levels exceeding the BNAQS daily standard showed a 0.7-1.5 %p difference by the IQR, meaning a 13-27 days difference in the period. We did not find statistically significant associations between the distance to monitors and neighborhood characteristics but some indication regarding SDI. We found that O levels were higher in neighborhoods situated farther from monitoring stations, suggesting that elevated levels of air pollution may not be routinely measured. Exposure disparity patterns may vary by pollutants, suggesting a complex interplay between environmental and socioeconomic factors in environmental justice.

摘要

尽管在世界其他地区已观察到空气污染暴露差异,但南美洲在空气污染暴露差异的社会人口因素研究方面代表性不足。我们调查了2012年至2017年期间,在巴西人口第二多且城市地区密集的里约热内卢市,空气污染暴露及相关信息是否因社会人口因素而有所不同。我们利用卫星遥感、大气和土地变量以及土地利用信息的高维数据集,开发了基于机器学习的模型来估计每日的臭氧(O₃)、细颗粒物(PM₂.₅)和可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀)水平。交叉验证表明,估计水平与地面监测站的测量结果之间具有良好的一致性:臭氧、细颗粒物和可吸入颗粒物的总体一致性分别为76.8%、63.9%和69.1%。我们进行了单变量回归分析,以研究长期暴露于臭氧、细颗粒物、可吸入颗粒物以及与监管监测站的距离是否因社会经济指标、154个社区中儿童(0至17岁)或65岁及以上居民的百分比而有所不同。我们还检查了超过巴西国家空气质量标准(BNAQS)的天数。在社会经济条件较差的社区,长期暴露于臭氧和细颗粒物的水平更高。社会发展指数(SDI)每增加一个四分位数间距(IQR),臭氧水平降低3.6μg/m³(95%置信区间[CI]:2.9,4.4;p值≤0.001),细颗粒物水平降低0.3μg/m³(95%CI:0.2,0.5;p值 = 0.010)。儿童居民百分比每增加一个IQR,臭氧水平增加4.1μg/m³(95%CI:3.1,5.0;p值≤0.001),细颗粒物水平增加0.4μg/m³(95%CI:0.3,0.6;p值 = 0.009)。65岁及以上居民百分比每增加一个IQR,臭氧水平降低3.3μg/m³(95%CI:2.4,4.3;p值<0.001),细颗粒物水平降低0.3μg/m³(95%CI:0.1,0.5;p值 = 0.058)。可吸入颗粒物没有明显的关联。每日臭氧水平超过BNAQS每日标准的关联因变量的IQR而相差0.4%p - 0.8%p,表明在六年期间相差7 - 15天。每日细颗粒物水平超过BNAQS每日标准的关联因IQR而相差0.7 - 1.5%p,意味着在此期间相差13 - 27天。我们没有发现监测站距离与社区特征之间存在统计学上的显著关联,但发现了一些与SDI有关的迹象。我们发现,距离监测站较远的社区臭氧水平较高,这表明空气污染水平升高可能未被常规测量。暴露差异模式可能因污染物而异,这表明环境与社会经济因素在环境正义中存在复杂的相互作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/55284ac2f69a/nihms-1982489-f0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/4db5bdf0b0a3/nihms-1982489-f0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/2e4438a9c766/nihms-1982489-f0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/834400604b23/nihms-1982489-f0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/55284ac2f69a/nihms-1982489-f0004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/4db5bdf0b0a3/nihms-1982489-f0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/2e4438a9c766/nihms-1982489-f0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/834400604b23/nihms-1982489-f0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6421/11523490/55284ac2f69a/nihms-1982489-f0004.jpg

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