School of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830054, Xinjiang, China.
School of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, 830054, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone, Urumqi, 830054, Xinjiang, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Dec;371:123058. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123058. Epub 2024 Oct 30.
The relationship between carbon sources and sinks, along with their balance, is a crucial indicator for assessing ecosystem health. Ecosystem protection mitigates climate change and promotes the carbon cycle balance. Consequently, to effectively assess the status of carbon sources and sinks in an oasis ecosystem, this study utilized remote sensing and statistical data to estimate the natural carbon sources and sinks, energy carbon emissions(ECE), and carbon surpluses or deficits in the urban agglomeration of the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains(UANSTM) for a period 2000-2022 from a perspective of the natural-social-economic system. The driving mechanisms were analyzed using the optimal geodetector model (OPGD) and generalized divisia index method (GDIM). The results show(1) throughout the study period, natural carbon sources and sinks in the UANSTM exhibited a distribution pattern that diminished from the Tianshan Mountains axis northward and southward, accompanied by a fluctuating increase over time. ECE predominantly occurred in urban built-up areas and adjacent cultivated lands, totaling an increase of 88.48 × 10 TgC. (2) The change trend showed an overall predominance of carbon sources, with the rate of increase of carbon sources being greater than that of carbon sinks. Grassland-cultivated land and construction land interaction area exhibited significant changes in carbon sources and sinks. (3) During the study period, the UANSTM experienced a consistent carbon deficit, averaging -68.11 TgC annually. Spatially, this deficit evolved from discrete points to linear and then to areal patterns. (4) Precipitation and elevation were the primary determinants of natural carbon sources and sinks. Whereas GDP with a contribution of 50.4%,was the predominant driver of ECE across each prefecture-level city. Development of policies that synergize regional natural and socioeconomic systems is an important means of achieving a carbon balance. The results of this study provide a reference for adding a research paradigm on carbon sources and sinks in oasis urban agglomerations and for low-carbon development.
碳源和碳汇及其平衡关系是评估生态系统健康的关键指标。生态系统保护可以减缓气候变化，促进碳循环平衡。因此，为了有效地评估天山北坡绿洲城市群（UANSTM）的碳源和碳汇状况，本研究从自然-社会-经济系统的角度出发，利用遥感和统计数据估算了 2000-2022 年 UANSTM 的自然碳源和碳汇、能源碳排放（ECE）以及碳盈余或亏损，并利用最优地理探测器模型（OPGD）和广义Divisia 指数法（GDIM）分析了驱动机制。结果表明：（1）研究期内，UANSTM 的自然碳源和碳汇呈天山山脉轴向北、南递减的分布格局，且随时间呈波动增加；ECE 主要发生在城市建成区和周边耕地，累计增加 88.48×10 TgC。（2）变化趋势整体以碳源为主，碳源增加速率大于碳汇。草地-耕地和建设用地交互区碳源和碳汇变化显著。（3）研究期间，UANSTM 持续处于碳亏损状态，年平均亏损量为-68.11 TgC。空间上，这种亏损从离散点演变为线性，再演变为面状。（4）降水和高程是自然碳源和碳汇的主要决定因素，而 GDP 以 50.4%的贡献率成为每个地市级城市 ECE 的主要驱动因素。协同区域自然和社会经济系统的政策发展是实现碳平衡的重要手段。本研究结果为绿洲城市群碳源和碳汇研究增加了参考，并为低碳发展提供了参考。
