Chen Meiqian, Gao Lei, Guo Zhaoxia, Dong Yucheng, Moallemi Enayat A, Xu Yinfeng, Li Ke, Lin Wenhao, Yang Jing, Xu Weijun, Pedercini Matteo, Bryan Brett A
Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, P.R. China.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Waite Campus, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Nat Commun. 2024 Nov 2;15(1):9489. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53912-z.
Climate mitigation policies have broad environmental and socioeconomic impacts and thus underpin progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through national-scale integrated modeling, we explore the spillover effects of China's long-term climate mitigation pathways (CMPs) on achieving all 17 SDGs, and then identify a cost-effective CMP for China with co-benefits for sustainability. Our analysis indicates that the 9 original CMPs and 180 bundled CMPs can both substantially boost the SDGs, resulting in an increase of 6.33-8.86 and 5.90-9.33 points in overall SDG score (0=no progress, 100=full achievement) by 2060, compared to the Reference pathway of 70.75 points, respectively. The identified cost-effective CMP deals with the trade-offs among sustainability, CO emissions and mitigation cost, and maximizes the synergies between them. This CMP can inform future directions for China's policy-makers to maximize the potential synergies between carbon neutrality and long-term sustainable development.
气候缓解政策具有广泛的环境和社会经济影响，因此是实现联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）的基础。通过国家层面的综合建模，我们探讨了中国长期气候缓解路径（CMPs）对实现所有17个可持续发展目标的溢出效应，然后为中国确定了一条具有可持续发展共同效益的成本效益高的CMP。我们的分析表明，9条原始CMP和180条捆绑CMP都能大幅推动可持续发展目标，到2060年，总体可持续发展目标得分（0=无进展，100=完全实现）分别比参考路径的70.75分提高6.33 - 8.86分和5.90 - 9.33分。确定的成本效益高的CMP处理了可持续性、碳排放和缓解成本之间的权衡，并使它们之间的协同效应最大化。这条CMP可以为中国政策制定者提供未来方向，以最大限度地发挥碳中和与长期可持续发展之间的潜在协同效应。
