School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
Academy of Zhejiang Culture Industry Innovation & Development, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Nov 6;19(11):e0311968. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311968. eCollection 2024.
Sudden social hot events spread rapidly in the Internet era, which can easily cause group behaviors. Therefore, studying the law of public opinion communication has important theoretical and practical significance for controlling public opinion. This paper constructs the DBUS (Divorced-Burning-Unburning-Stable) model according to the social combustion theory deduced from the analogy of natural combustion phenomena. This paper comprehensively considers the influence of individual characteristics and external environment on the dissemination of online public opinion, introduces indicators such as individuals' self-awareness ability, authority to reflect individual differences, and takes the surrounding individual influence as an external environment factor. Through simulations, we find that (1) the speed of public opinion communication and the dissipation speed are related to cognitive ability, conformity and the network structure; (2) the credibility of the government and the media and the transparency of the information released are the most important factors affecting the scale of public opinion communication; In addition, the rationality and effectiveness of the model established in this paper are verified by an example.
突发社会热点事件在互联网时代迅速传播，容易引发群体行为。因此，研究舆论传播规律对于舆论控制具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文根据类比自然燃烧现象得出的社会燃烧理论，构建了 DBUS（离异-燃烧-未燃烧-稳定）模型。该模型综合考虑了个体特征和外部环境对网络舆论传播的影响，引入了个体自我意识能力、反映个体差异的权威性指标，并将周围个体影响作为外部环境因素。通过仿真，我们发现：（1）舆论传播的速度和消散速度与认知能力、从众心理和网络结构有关；（2）政府和媒体的公信力以及发布信息的透明度是影响舆论传播规模的最重要因素；此外，本文通过实例验证了所建模型的合理性和有效性。
