Shifted baselines: Using the adaptive cycle to assess the post-tsunami mangrove social-ecological system recovery in the Nicobar Islands.

The 2004 tsunami and coastal subsidence resulted in 97% mangrove loss in the Nicobar Islands (India), leading to major social-ecological change. We assessed how the Nicobar mangrove social-ecological system (SES) responded to the 2004 event using the adaptive cycle (AC) framework. We describe the changes across AC phases (collapse-Ω, reorganisation-α, growth-r, and conservation-K) concerning various capital types (natural, built, human, social), connectedness and resilience. The subsidence and tsunami triggered a rapid collapse (Ω) in the mangrove SES, particularly depleting natural and built capitals. Despite declines in social and human capital, some knowledge and skills were retained within Nicobari communities. We suggest that locally managed interventions involving mangrove restoration are critical to escape the poverty trap caused by resource insufficiency hindering growth. The AC model helps visualise and describe temporal changes, preparing for recovery challenges. This approach is relevant to SESs beyond Nicobar, offering insights for sites confronting similar social-ecological dynamics and challenges.