Palomo Ignacio, González-García Alberto, Ferraro Paul J, Muradian Roldan, Pascual Unai, Arboledas Manuel, Bullock James M, Bruley Enora, Gómez-Baggethun Erik, Lavorel Sandra
Univ. Grenoble-Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, INRAE, IGE, 38000, Grenoble, France.
Carey Business School and Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Ambio. 2025 Feb;54(2):212-224. doi: 10.1007/s13280-024-02085-6. Epub 2024 Nov 7.
To address climate change and global biodiversity loss, the world must hit three important international conservation targets by 2030: protect 30% of terrestrial and marine areas, halt and reverse forest loss, and restore 350 Mha of degraded and deforested landscapes. Here, we (1) provide estimates of the gaps between these globally agreed targets and business-as-usual trends; (2) identify examples of rapid past trend-shifts towards achieving the targets; and (3) link these past trend-shifts to different levers. Our results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, the world will fail to achieve all three targets. However, trend-shifts that rapidly "bend the curve" have happened in the past and these should therefore be fostered. These trend-shifts are linked to transformative change levers that include environmental governance, economic factors, values, and knowledge. Further research on trend-shifts, as well as bold action on underlying levers, is urgently needed to meet 2030 global conservation targets.
为应对气候变化和全球生物多样性丧失,到2030年,世界必须实现三个重要的国际保护目标:保护30%的陆地和海洋区域,停止并扭转森林流失,恢复3.5亿公顷退化和森林砍伐的景观。在此,我们(1)估计这些全球商定目标与照常行事趋势之间的差距;(2)找出过去迅速转向实现目标的趋势转变实例;(3)将这些过去的趋势转变与不同的杠杆联系起来。我们的结果表明,在照常行事的情景下,世界将无法实现所有三个目标。然而,过去曾发生过迅速“改变曲线”的趋势转变,因此应加以推动。这些趋势转变与包括环境治理、经济因素、价值观和知识在内的变革性变革杠杆相关联。迫切需要对趋势转变进行进一步研究,并对潜在杠杆采取大胆行动,以实现2030年全球保护目标。