Hamon Laura E, Kingsolver Joel G, Moore Kati J, Hurlbert Allen H
Department of Entomology & Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Environ Entomol. 2025 Feb 19;54(1):77-85. doi: 10.1093/ee/nvae110.
Climate change has been repeatedly linked to phenological shifts in many taxa, but the factors that drive variation in phenological sensitivity remain unclear. For example, relatively little is known about phenological responses in areas that have not exhibited a consistent warming trend, making it difficult to project phenological responses in response to future climate scenarios for these regions. We used an extensive community science dataset to examine changes in the adult flight onset dates of 38 butterfly species with interannual variation in spring temperatures in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, a region that did not experience a significant overall warming trend in the second half of the 20th century. We also explored whether voltinism, overwintering stage, and mean adult flight onset dates explain interspecific variation in phenological sensitivity to spring temperature. We found that 12 out of 38 species exhibited a significant advance in adult flight onset dates with higher spring temperatures. In comparison, none of the 38 species exhibited a significant advance with year. There was a significant interaction between mean onset flight date and voltinism, such that late-emerging, multivoltine species tended to be the most sensitive to spring temperature changes. We did not observe a significant correlation between phenological sensitivity and the overwintering stage. These results suggest that butterfly arrival dates may shift as temperatures are projected to rise in the southeastern United States, with late-emerging, multivoltine species potentially exhibiting the greatest shifts in adult flight onset dates.
气候变化已多次被证明与许多生物类群的物候变化有关，但驱动物候敏感性变化的因素仍不明确。例如，对于那些没有呈现出持续变暖趋势地区的物候响应，我们了解得相对较少，这使得预测这些地区未来气候情景下的物候响应变得困难。我们利用一个广泛的社区科学数据集，研究了北卡罗来纳州皮埃蒙特地区38种蝴蝶成虫飞行起始日期的变化，该地区在20世纪下半叶没有经历显著的整体变暖趋势，且春季温度存在年际变化。我们还探讨了化性、越冬阶段和成虫平均飞行起始日期是否能解释物种间对春季温度物候敏感性的差异。我们发现，38种蝴蝶中有12种随着春季温度升高，成虫飞行起始日期显著提前。相比之下，38种蝴蝶中没有一种随着年份推移出现显著提前。平均起始飞行日期和化性之间存在显著的交互作用，即羽化较晚的多化性物种往往对春季温度变化最为敏感。我们没有观察到物候敏感性与越冬阶段之间存在显著相关性。这些结果表明，随着美国东南部预计气温上升，蝴蝶到达日期可能会发生变化，羽化较晚的多化性物种成虫飞行起始日期可能会出现最大变化。
