Division of Social Science, New York University Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Campus, PO Box 129188, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 9;14(1):27323. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-78735-2.
This paper shows that the level and timing of fertility are converging strongly over different measures of educational attainment using 65 years of data from 146 countries. Global convergence patterns are primarily driven by high-income societies, while sub-Saharan Africa is the world region that is converging most slowly, if not converging at all. Most importantly, levels of education matter heavily for explaining strength and variation in global fertility convergence, with two intersecting educational gradients suggesting: (i) stronger convergence over tertiary education followed, in turn, by secondary and primary; (ii) stronger convergence over education completed relative to education attended. Our findings provide important insights for addressing key challenges in global development and demography, and for informing policymakers as they evaluate the suitability of specific educational policies aimed at further narrowing inequalities between societies-such as supporting higher education as well as the successful completion of targeted educational cycles.
本文利用来自 146 个国家的 65 年数据，证明了在不同的教育程度衡量标准下，生育率的水平和时机正在强烈趋同。全球趋同模式主要由高收入社会驱动，而撒哈拉以南非洲是全球趋同最慢的地区，如果不是完全没有趋同的话。最重要的是，教育水平对解释全球生育率趋同的强度和变化具有重要意义，两个交叉的教育梯度表明：（i）高等教育之后的趋同更强，其次是中等教育和初等教育；（ii）相对于入学教育，完成教育的趋同更强。我们的研究结果为解决全球发展和人口统计学方面的关键挑战提供了重要的见解，并为政策制定者提供了信息，因为他们需要评估旨在进一步缩小社会之间不平等的特定教育政策的适宜性——例如支持高等教育以及成功完成有针对性的教育周期。
