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2000 年至 2021 年美洲自然灾害相关灾害的流行病学特征和发病-死亡模式。

The epidemiological profile and morbidity-mortality patterns of the natural hazards-related disasters in the Americas from 2000 to 2021.

机构信息

Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidad de Oviedo, 33006 Oviedo, Spain.

出版信息

Public Health. 2024 Dec;237:418-425. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.11.004. Epub 2024 Nov 11.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the epidemiological profile of natural hazard-related disasters in the Americas between 2000 and 2021.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Mean and standard deviation were used to calculate the mean rates of affected individuals, injuries, and mortality per year and per million inhabitants. The ANOVA test was applied between the calculated mean rates by type of disasters. Exponential smoothing was used to forecast the number of disasters up to the year 2026.

RESULTS

A total of 2045 natural hazard-related disasters were recorded. Of these, 81 (3.96 %) were biological, 199 (9.73 %) were climatological, 140 (6.85 %) were geophysical, 843 (41.22 %) were hydrological, and 782 (38.24 %) were meteorological. A statistically significant difference was observed between the mean injury rates per million inhabitants of natural hazard-related disasters (F = 3.40; p = 0.010). The mortality rate per million inhabitants (F = 0.43; p = 0.786) and the mean affected rate per million inhabitants (F = 0.68; p = 0.609) were not found to be statistically significant regarding the type of disaster. The results demonstrated no statistically significant decline in the mean rate of affected individuals per million inhabitants (tau = -0.086, p = 0.336), the mean mortality rate per million inhabitants (tau = -0.221, p = 0.159), and the mean rate of injuries per million inhabitants (tau = 0.169, p = 0.284).

CONCLUSIONS

Hydrological disasters had the highest mean mortality rate, biological disasters had the highest mean injury rate, and geophysical disasters had the highest mean rate of affected individuals.

摘要

目的

分析 2000 年至 2021 年期间美洲自然灾害相关灾害的流行病学特征。

研究设计

横断面研究。

方法

采用均数和标准差计算每年每百万人受灾人数、受伤人数和死亡人数的平均发生率。通过灾害类型对计算出的平均发生率进行方差分析。采用指数平滑法预测 2026 年之前的灾害数量。

结果

共记录了 2045 起自然灾害相关灾害。其中,81 起(3.96%)为生物灾害,199 起(9.73%)为气候灾害,140 起(6.85%)为地球物理灾害,843 起(41.22%)为水文灾害,782 起(38.24%)为气象灾害。自然灾害相关灾害每百万人受伤率的平均值存在统计学差异(F=3.40;p=0.010)。每百万人的死亡率(F=0.43;p=0.786)和每百万人受灾人数的平均值(F=0.68;p=0.609)在灾害类型方面没有发现统计学意义。结果表明,每百万人受灾人数的平均值(tau=-0.086,p=0.336)、每百万人死亡人数的平均值(tau=-0.221,p=0.159)和每百万人受伤人数的平均值(tau=0.169,p=0.284)没有统计学意义。

结论

水文灾害的平均死亡率最高,生物灾害的平均受伤率最高,地球物理灾害的平均受灾人数最高。

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