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2000年至2021年美洲技术灾害的流行病学概况及发病-死亡模式:一项横断面研究。

The epidemiological profile and morbidity-mortality patterns of technological disasters in the Americas from 2000 to 2021: a cross-sectional study.

作者信息

Fernández García Andrea, Gan Rick Kye, Cernuda Martínez José Antonio, Arcos González Pedro

机构信息

Unit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo, 33006, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31493. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83076-1.

Abstract

Technological disasters in the Americas have significant public health and environmental implications, but there is limited epidemiological analysis of these events. This study aims to characterize the epidemiological profile of technological disasters in the Americas from 2000 to 2021, focusing on morbidity and mortality trends. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted. The ANOVA test was applied in the mean rates calculated for each type of disaster. The Mann-Kendall test assessed the presence or absence of temporal trends, and the Dickey-Fuller augmented test was used to determine if the time series were stationary. Predictions were made up to the year 2030 to mean mortality rate per million inhabitants, mean rate of people affected per million inhabitants, and mean rate of people injured per million inhabitants. A total of 733 technological disasters were recorded in the Americas. Statistically significant differences were found between the mean rates of people affected and the mean mortality rates per million inhabitants for each type of technological disaster. No trends were identified. The highest mean mortality rates occurred because of industrial accidents.

摘要

美洲的技术灾难对公众健康和环境有着重大影响,但对这些事件的流行病学分析却很有限。本研究旨在描述2000年至2021年美洲技术灾难的流行病学概况,重点关注发病率和死亡率趋势。开展了一项回顾性横断面研究。对每种灾难类型计算的平均发生率应用了方差分析测试。曼-肯德尔检验评估了时间趋势的有无,迪基-富勒增强检验用于确定时间序列是否平稳。对2030年每百万居民的平均死亡率、每百万居民受影响人数的平均发生率以及每百万居民受伤人数的平均发生率进行了预测。美洲共记录了733起技术灾难。在每种技术灾难类型中,受影响人数的平均发生率与每百万居民的平均死亡率之间存在统计学上的显著差异。未发现趋势。平均死亡率最高的是工业事故。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6c69/11682408/75d904663db2/41598_2024_83076_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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