Faculty of Science and Engineering, School of Engineering & the Built Environment, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, UK.
Faculty of Health, Medicine and Social Care, School of Allied Health and Social Care, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UK.
Public Health. 2024 Dec;237:435-442. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.10.028. Epub 2024 Nov 12.
This study aims to create a vision of the future hospital to help healthcare leaders understand how changes in society and the healthcare system, compounded by climate change, could affect future hospital estate.
The study is part of a larger project based on participatory backcasting aimed at providing integrated strategies for transitioning to a zero-carbon future and adapting to existing climate change through improved asset management.
The data presented in this paper were collected during a full-day workshop to construct the vision of the future hospital in 2050. A multidisciplinary team of 19 participants participated in the discussions. A six-phase thematic analysis was applied to the data to develop the narrative vision and graphic recording.
The healthcare system is undergoing transformative changes due to evolving healthcare delivery, patient expectations, emerging technologies, climate change, and sustainability. However, current hospital strategies often fail to consider the interrelationship between the hospital estate and its socio-environmental context. Policymakers, healthcare system leaders, and hospital leaders need a clear vision of the hospital of the future to implement transformational strategies.
Healthcare transformations require shifting from traditional centralised hospitals to a more flexible, distributed model. Healthcare leaders need to proactively assess how hospitals respond to current and future hazards and consider the impacts within the context of integrated and dispersed healthcare delivery. To address this, a systematic approach to modelling hazards and evaluating design or upgrading options is essential to mitigate the transfer of climate-related risks within healthcare systems.
本研究旨在描绘未来医院的愿景，帮助医疗保健领导者了解社会和医疗体系的变化，以及气候变化如何影响未来的医院地产。
本研究是基于参与式反推的更大项目的一部分，旨在通过综合战略实现向零碳未来的过渡，并通过改善资产管理来适应现有气候变化。
本文中呈现的数据是在为期一天的研讨会中收集的，旨在构建 2050 年未来医院的愿景。一个由 19 名参与者组成的多学科团队参与了讨论。应用六阶段主题分析对数据进行分析，以开发叙事愿景和图形记录。
由于医疗服务的不断变化、患者期望、新兴技术、气候变化和可持续性，医疗系统正在发生变革。然而，当前的医院策略往往没有考虑医院地产与其社会-环境背景之间的相互关系。政策制定者、医疗系统领导者和医院领导者需要对未来医院有一个清晰的愿景，以实施变革战略。
医疗保健的变革需要从传统的集中式医院转向更灵活、分布式的模式。医疗保健领导者需要积极评估医院如何应对当前和未来的灾害，并在综合和分散的医疗服务背景下考虑其影响。为了解决这个问题，需要系统地模拟灾害并评估设计或升级选项，以减轻医疗保健系统内与气候相关的风险转移。
