Envisioning the sustainable and climate resilient hospital of the future.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to create a vision of the future hospital to help healthcare leaders understand how changes in society and the healthcare system, compounded by climate change, could affect future hospital estate.

STUDY DESIGN

The study is part of a larger project based on participatory backcasting aimed at providing integrated strategies for transitioning to a zero-carbon future and adapting to existing climate change through improved asset management.

METHODS

The data presented in this paper were collected during a full-day workshop to construct the vision of the future hospital in 2050. A multidisciplinary team of 19 participants participated in the discussions. A six-phase thematic analysis was applied to the data to develop the narrative vision and graphic recording.

RESULTS

The healthcare system is undergoing transformative changes due to evolving healthcare delivery, patient expectations, emerging technologies, climate change, and sustainability. However, current hospital strategies often fail to consider the interrelationship between the hospital estate and its socio-environmental context. Policymakers, healthcare system leaders, and hospital leaders need a clear vision of the hospital of the future to implement transformational strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare transformations require shifting from traditional centralised hospitals to a more flexible, distributed model. Healthcare leaders need to proactively assess how hospitals respond to current and future hazards and consider the impacts within the context of integrated and dispersed healthcare delivery. To address this, a systematic approach to modelling hazards and evaluating design or upgrading options is essential to mitigate the transfer of climate-related risks within healthcare systems.