Department of Neurology, Oregon Health and Sciences University ,Portland, OR, USA.
Heritage College of Osteopathic Medicine, Ohio University, Athens, USA.
Biodemography Soc Biol. 2024 Oct-Dec;69(4):203-217. doi: 10.1080/19485565.2024.2419518. Epub 2024 Nov 14.
Previous work using U.S. data has identified generational shifts, reflected in inter-cohort changes, in the incidence and prevalence of diseases in older ages. This study extends previous findings to England by examining similar results in memory complaints, heart conditions, stroke, diabetes, lung disease, and cancer using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We fit Cox proportional hazard models to the first eight waves (2002-2016) of the ELSA sample ( = 18,528). In addition to exploring shifts in disease incidence we also examine shifts in disease mortality. Both general and sex-related differences are examined. Disease incidence has increased for later-born cohorts in England, replicating similar trends in the U.S. Not all diseases showed differences between men and women, but when differences were identified, women had lower risks for disease. In comparison to the U.S. sample, disease trends in England are more negative (i.e. accelerated failure times) for more recently born cohorts. These results showing increasing incidence of disease among the later-born cohorts suggest the possibility of increased disease burden in coming years.
先前使用美国数据的研究已经确定了代际变化，这反映在老年人群中疾病的发病率和患病率的队列间变化中。本研究通过使用英国老龄化纵向研究（ELSA）的数据，在记忆问题、心脏状况、中风、糖尿病、肺部疾病和癌症方面检查了类似的结果，将这些发现扩展到了英国。我们使用 ELSA 样本的前八波（2002-2016 年）拟合了 Cox 比例风险模型（n=18528）。除了探索疾病发病率的变化外，我们还检查了疾病死亡率的变化。研究了一般差异和性别差异。在英国，后来出生的队列的疾病发病率有所增加，复制了美国的类似趋势。并非所有疾病在男性和女性之间都存在差异，但当存在差异时，女性的疾病风险较低。与美国样本相比，英格兰的疾病趋势对最近出生的队列来说更为负面（即加速失效时间）。这些结果表明，后来出生的队列中疾病的发病率不断上升，这表明未来几年疾病负担可能会增加。
