[Double-Gap Model for life expectancy for Argentina].

BACKGROUND

In this work, a probabilistic method is implemented to estimate the life expectancy of men and women by age; the Double GAP or Double Gap method. The application to the case of Argentina attempts to provide information on the phenomenon of population aging and its relationship with the pension system.

OBJECTIVE

Present estimates and projections of the life expectancy of men and women by age obtained through a probabilistic method that considers the differential by sex.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The Double GAP or Double Gap method is estimated, and then the life expectancies at 60 and 65 years are selected (for women and men respectively), given that these are the retirement ages in Argentina and are present the forecasts and their corresponding confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The forecasts of the Double Gap model indicate that life expectancy in Argentina at both 60 and 65 years of age will grow slightly until 2025. For women it increases by half a year, while for men the growth in hope is slightly higher. The latter also shows a slow trend towards a convergence between male and female life expectancies.

CONCLUSIONS

It is evident that Argentina is far from registering a record in life expectancy worldwide for these ages, because the life expectancy forecasts generated by the Double Gap model for the country are very far from the trend of good practices (series of maximums in life expectancy).