Laurenson Kirsty, Wood Matt J, Birkhead Tim R, Priestley Matthew D K, Sherley Richard B, Fayet Annette L, Guilford Tim, Hatchwell Ben J, Votier Stephen C
Lyell Centre, Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham, UK.
J Anim Ecol. 2025 Jan;94(1):139-153. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.14227. Epub 2024 Nov 19.
Understanding storm impacts on marine vertebrate demography requires detailed meteorological data in tandem with long-term population monitoring. Yet most studies use storm proxies such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), potentially obfuscating a mechanistic understanding of current and future risk. Here, we investigate the impact of extratropical cyclones by extracting north Atlantic winter storm characteristics (storm number, intensity, clustering and wave conditions) and relating these with long-term overwinter adult survival of three long-lived sympatric seabirds which winter at sea-common guillemot Uria aalge, Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica and razorbill Alca torda. We used multidecadal mark-recapture analysis (1970s-2020s) to estimate survival while correcting for resighting probability, combined with spatially explicit environmental data from geolocation-derived wintering areas, to determine the impact of different storm characteristics (i.e., number, intensity, duration, gap between storms, wave height and wind speed), as well as broad-scale climatic conditions (NAOI and sea surface temperature [SST]). All three species experienced rapid population growth over the study period. Guillemot and razorbill survival was lower during stormier winters, with an additive effect of summer SST for guillemots, and a negative interaction with population size for razorbills. Puffin survival was negatively correlated with winter SST, and the lowest puffin survival coincided with intense winter storms and a large seabird wreck in 2013/14. The number of days with wind speed >30 and 35 ms negatively impacted razorbill and guillemot survival, respectively, and puffin survival was higher when gaps between storms were longer. Our results suggest negative but divergent storm impacts on these closely related sympatric breeders, which may be compounded by warmer seas and density-dependence as these populations return to their previously much larger sizes. We tentatively suggest that frequent, long-lasting storms with strong winds are likely to have the greatest negative impact on auk survival. Moreover, we highlight the possibility of tipping points, where only the most extreme storms, that may become more frequent in the future, have measurable impacts on seabird survival, and no effect of NAOI.
要了解风暴对海洋脊椎动物种群统计学的影响，需要详细的气象数据以及长期的种群监测。然而，大多数研究使用诸如北大西洋涛动指数（NAOI）等风暴代理指标，这可能会模糊对当前和未来风险的机制理解。在此，我们通过提取北大西洋冬季风暴特征（风暴数量、强度、集群和波浪状况）并将其与三种在海上越冬的长寿同域海鸟——普通海雀（Uria aalge）、大西洋海鹦（Fratercula arctica）和刀嘴海雀（Alca torda）的长期越冬成年个体存活率相关联，来研究温带气旋的影响。我们使用了数十年的标记重捕分析（20世纪70年代至20世纪20年代）来估计存活率，同时校正重新观察的概率，并结合来自地理定位得出的越冬区域的空间明确环境数据，以确定不同风暴特征（即数量、强度、持续时间、风暴间隔、波高和风速）以及大尺度气候条件（NAOI和海表面温度 [SST]）的影响。在研究期间，所有这三个物种都经历了快速的种群增长。海雀和刀嘴海雀在暴风雨更频繁的冬季存活率较低，对于海雀，夏季SST有累加效应，而对于刀嘴海雀，其与种群大小存在负相互作用。海鹦的存活率与冬季SST呈负相关，海鹦最低的存活率与2013/14年强烈的冬季风暴和一次大型海鸟死亡事件同时发生。风速>30和35米/秒的天数分别对刀嘴海雀和海雀的存活率产生负面影响，当风暴间隔较长时，海鹦的存活率较高。我们的结果表明风暴对这些密切相关的同域繁殖者有负面但不同的影响，随着这些种群恢复到先前大得多的规模，温暖的海洋和密度依赖性可能会使这种影响更加复杂。我们初步认为，频繁、持久且伴有强风的风暴可能对海雀的生存产生最大的负面影响。此外，我们强调了临界点的可能性，即只有未来可能变得更加频繁的最极端风暴才会对海鸟的生存产生可测量的影响，而NAOI则没有影响。
