Postgraduate Program in Food and Nutrition, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Federal University of Pelotas, Rua Gomes Carneiro, 1-Centro, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, CEP:96010-610, Brasil (
Prev Chronic Dis. 2024 Nov 21;21:E91. doi: 10.5888/pcd21.240082.
The prevalence of chronic conditions is increasing worldwide. The objective of this study was to describe the trajectory of the occurrence of multiple chronic conditions during 6 years of follow-up and investigate their association with demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral health characteristics of older adults in Southern Brazil.
We used data from a longitudinal study (the Como Vai? study) of noninstitutionalized adults aged 60 or older living in the urban area of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul. We assessed the number of chronic conditions based on a list of 24 conditions in 3 interviews, conducted in 2014, 2016-2017, and 2019-2020. We used group-based semiparametric modeling to identify groups of participants based on the number of chronic conditions. For associations with participant characteristics, we performed multinomial logistic regression and considered a low, moderate, and high burden of chronic conditions.
Of the 1,451 older adults in the cohort, 1,098 (75.7%) were included in analysis. Almost one-third (30.9%) had a low burden (2.3 conditions), more than half (52.0%) had a moderate burden (5.6 conditions), and 17.1% had a high burden (9.7 conditions). Men (relative risk [RR] = 6.10; 95% CI, 3.64-10.22), those aged 80 years or older (RR = 2.33; 95% CI, 1.15-4.72), those with no education (RR= 4.78; 95% CI, 2.19-10.45), and former smokers (RR = 1.53; 95% CI, 0.96-2.44) had a higher risk of being classified in the high-burden group than in the low-burden group.
Most older adults belonged to the group with a moderate number of chronic conditions. Several sociodemographic characteristics were associated with belonging to the trajectory with a greater number of conditions.
慢性疾病的患病率在全球范围内呈上升趋势。本研究的目的是描述在 6 年的随访期间多种慢性疾病的发生轨迹，并探讨其与巴西南部老年人的人口统计学、社会经济和行为健康特征的关系。
我们使用了一项来自南里奥格兰德州佩洛塔斯市城市地区的非住院老年人的纵向研究（Como Vai？研究）的数据。我们根据 24 种疾病的清单，在 3 次访谈中评估了慢性疾病的数量，这些访谈分别于 2014 年、2016-2017 年和 2019-2020 年进行。我们使用基于群组的半参数建模来根据慢性疾病的数量确定参与者群组。对于与参与者特征的关联，我们进行了多项逻辑回归，并考虑了慢性疾病的低、中、高负担。
在队列中的 1451 名老年人中，有 1098 名（75.7%）被纳入分析。近三分之一（30.9%）的人负担较轻（2.3 种疾病），超过一半（52.0%）的人负担中等（5.6 种疾病），17.1%的人负担较重（9.7 种疾病）。男性（相对风险 [RR] = 6.10；95%置信区间，3.64-10.22）、80 岁或以上的人（RR = 2.33；95%置信区间，1.15-4.72）、没有受过教育的人（RR = 4.78；95%置信区间，2.19-10.45）和前吸烟者（RR = 1.53；95%置信区间，0.96-2.44）比负担较轻的人更有可能被归类为负担较重的人。
大多数老年人属于患有中等数量慢性疾病的人群。一些社会人口统计学特征与患有更多疾病的轨迹有关。
