Grezio Anita, Anzidei Marco, Baglione Enrico, Brizuela Beatriz, Di Manna Pio, Selva Jacopo, Taroni Matteo, Tonini Roberto, Vecchio Antonio
Sezione di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 40127, Bologna, Italy.
Osservatorio Nazionale Terremoti, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143, Rome, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 21;14(1):28873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79770-9.
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) introduces potential biases in tsunami risk assessment if it assumes static coastlines. Global warming, in addition to geological and local factors, may affect sea-level rise in the next few decades. Here, we provide a method that integrates the expected sea-level rise into existing PTHA, updating regional models without further tsunami simulations. We perform the tsunami hazard analysis at the densely populated Mediterranean coasts, which are highly exposed to tsunami inundations, as reported by historical and instrumental evidence. PTHA and related epistemic uncertainties significantly change when we include the time-dependent components, such as: (1) vertical land movements along the coasts, and (2) future sea-level changes based on the expected climate scenarios described by the IPCC AR6 Report. Probability maps show that the mean probability of exceeding the 1 m and 2 m maximum inundation heights in 2070 has a general increase differentiating locally, with percent variations mainly in the range 10-30% of the updated time-dependent PTHA compared with the current PTHA.
如果概率性海啸灾害分析（PTHA）假设海岸线是静态的，那么它会在海啸风险评估中引入潜在偏差。除了地质和局部因素外，全球变暖可能会在未来几十年影响海平面上升。在此，我们提供一种方法，将预期的海平面上升纳入现有的PTHA中，无需进一步的海啸模拟即可更新区域模型。我们在人口密集的地中海沿岸进行海啸灾害分析，历史和仪器证据表明该地区极易受到海啸淹没的影响。当我们纳入随时间变化的因素时，例如：（1）沿海岸的垂直陆地运动，以及（2）基于IPCC AR6报告中描述的预期气候情景的未来海平面变化，PTHA及相关的认知不确定性会显著变化。概率图显示，到2070年超过1米和2米最大淹没高度的平均概率总体上有所增加，局部存在差异，与当前的PTHA相比，更新后的随时间变化的PTHA的百分比变化主要在10%-30%的范围内。
