Li Linlin, Switzer Adam D, Wang Yu, Chan Chung-Han, Qiu Qiang, Weiss Robert
Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore.
Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore.
Sci Adv. 2018 Aug 15;4(8):eaat1180. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat1180. eCollection 2018 Aug.
Rising sea levels will have overwhelmingly negative impacts on coastal communities globally. With previous research focused on how sea-level rise (SLR) affects storm-induced flooding, we show that SLR will also increase both the frequency and the intensity of tsunami-induced flooding, another significant coastal hazard associated with sea-level extremes. We developed probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for Macau, a densely populated coastal city located in the South China Sea, under current sea-level, 0.5-m SLR, and 1-m SLR conditions, using an extensive Monte Carlo tsunami inundation simulation. Our results indicate that conservative amounts of SLR of 0.5 m (by 2060) and 1 m (by 2100) would dramatically increase the frequency of tsunami-induced flooding incidences by a factor of 1.2 to 2.4 and 1.5 to 4.7, respectively.
海平面上升将对全球沿海社区产生极其负面的影响。以往的研究主要关注海平面上升（SLR）如何影响风暴引发的洪水，而我们发现海平面上升还将增加海啸引发洪水的频率和强度，海啸是另一种与极端海平面相关的重大沿海灾害。我们利用广泛的蒙特卡洛海啸淹没模拟，绘制了澳门（中国南海沿岸一座人口密集的城市）在当前海平面、海平面上升0.5米和海平面上升1米条件下的概率性海啸淹没地图。我们的结果表明，保守估计海平面上升0.5米（到2060年）和1米（到2100年）将分别使海啸引发洪水事件的频率大幅增加，增幅分别为1.2至2.4倍和1.5至4.7倍。
