Bartha Istvan, Maher Cyrus, Lavrenko Victor, Chen Yi-Pei, Tao Qiqing, di Iulio Julia, Boundy Keith, Kinter Elizabeth, Yeh Wendy, Corti Davide, Telenti Amalio
Vir Biotechnology Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA.
Commun Med (Lond). 2024 Nov 22;4(1):244. doi: 10.1038/s43856-024-00633-5.
There are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses.
To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021-2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater.
Our findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy.
Our analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state.
SARS-CoV-2大流行后存在三种可能的情况：（i）持续严重，（ii）类似流感的严重程度，以及（iii）转变为发病率较低的地方性疾病，类似于其他人类冠状病毒。
为了评估这三种情况下大流行可能的演变，我们使用了来自美国国家新冠队列协作组、疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）的COVID-NET以及CDC Fluview的数据，以及废水扫描仪表板的数据。我们将流感疾病和治疗反应作为基准。美国国家新冠队列协作组允许使用2021年至2022年期间424,165例SARS-CoV-2病例、53,846例流感病例和199,971名未感染对照受试者的电子健康记录来量化病毒特异性发病率。住院率的演变是根据全国SARS-CoV-2和流感住院数据与废水中病毒基因拷贝数之间的相关性来估计的。
我们的研究结果表明，就医的SARS-CoV-2感染的发病率与流感相似[表明情况（ii）]，但考虑到废水中的病毒浓度时，SARS-CoV-2的住院率比流感低一个数量级[表明情况（iii）]。此外，SARS-CoV-2对抗病毒治疗的反应更有利。
我们的分析证实，SARS-CoV-2向地方性状态转变时发病率迅速下降。
