Department of Radiation Health Management, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, Fukushima, Japan.
School of Medicine, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 22;14(1):29022. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80569-x.
After the Great East Japan Earthquake, planning appropriate healthcare resource allocation was crucial. However, accurately estimating medical care demand was challenging due to substantial population fluctuations caused by extensive evacuations, compounded by the inaccuracy of conventional Resident Resister data in this context. This study employs population data generated from mobile phone network from 2019 to 2020 to conduct a detailed temporal and spatial population estimation in Futaba County, originally a complete evacuation zone. To enhance the precision of population estimates, population data independently collected by each municipality were used as reference data in the estimation process. Further, the utility of the estimated population data for calculating emergency transport rates was assessed. Our findings revealed discrepancies between daytime and nighttime populations within Okuma and Futaba Town, where median day/night population ratio exceeded three across both weekdays and weekends. Additionally, sex-age-adjusted emergency transport rates calculated using the estimated population demonstrated closer alignment with the national average compared to those calculated based on census data. This study demonstrates the importance of considering dynamic population data, such as that generated from mobile phone networks, in enhancing healthcare planning and ensuring that resources are efficiently allocated to meet communities' evolving needs during recovery periods.
在东日本大地震之后,规划适当的医疗保健资源分配至关重要。然而,由于大规模疏散导致的人口大幅波动,以及在这种情况下常规居民登记数据的不准确性,准确估计医疗需求具有挑战性。本研究利用 2019 年至 2020 年期间从移动电话网络生成的人口数据,对原本是完全疏散区的双叶县进行详细的时空人口估计。为了提高人口估计的精度,在估计过程中使用了每个市町村独立收集的人口数据作为参考数据。此外,还评估了所估计的人口数据在计算紧急运输率方面的效用。研究结果显示,大间町和双叶町的白天和夜间人口存在差异,工作日和周末的中位数日/夜人口比例均超过三。此外,使用所估计的人口计算的性别年龄调整后的紧急运输率与基于人口普查数据计算的结果相比,更接近全国平均水平。本研究表明,在加强医疗保健规划和确保资源在恢复期间根据社区的不断变化的需求进行有效分配时,考虑动态人口数据(例如移动电话网络生成的数据)的重要性。