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大流行病学:全球时间尺度上疾病的诞生、发展、消亡与复苏

Big Epidemiology: The Birth, Life, Death, and Resurgence of Diseases on a Global Timescale.

作者信息

Bragazzi Nicola Luigi, Lehr Thorsten

机构信息

Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.

Human Nutrition Unit (HNU), Department of Food and Drugs, University of Parma, 43125 Parma, Italy.

出版信息

Epidemiologia (Basel). 2024 Nov 6;5(4):669-691. doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia5040047.

Abstract

Big Epidemiology represents an innovative framework that extends the interdisciplinary approach of Big History to understand disease patterns, causes, and effects across human history on a global scale. This comprehensive methodology integrates epidemiology, genetics, environmental science, sociology, history, and data science to address contemporary and future public health challenges through a broad historical and societal lens. The foundational research agenda involves mapping the historical occurrence of diseases and their impact on societies over time, utilizing archeological findings, biological data, and historical records. By analyzing skeletal remains, ancient DNA, and artifacts, researchers can trace the origins and spread of diseases, such as in the Black Death. Historical documents, including chronicles and medical treatises, provide contextual narratives and quantitative data on past disease outbreaks, societal responses, and disruptions. Modern genetic studies reveal the evolution and migration patterns of pathogens and human adaptations to diseases, offering insights into co-evolutionary dynamics. This integrative approach allows for temporal and spatial mapping of disease patterns, linking them to social upheavals, population changes, and economic transformations. Big Epidemiology also examines the roles of environmental changes and socioeconomic factors in disease emergence and re-emergence, incorporating climate science, urban development, and economic history to inform public health strategies. The framework reviews historical and contemporary policy responses to pandemics, aiming to enhance future global health governance. By addressing ethical, legal, and societal implications, Big Epidemiology seeks to ensure responsible and effective epidemiological research and interventions. This approach aims to profoundly impact how we understand, prevent, and respond to diseases, leveraging historical perspectives to enrich modern scientific inquiry and global public health strategies.

摘要

大流行病学代表了一种创新框架,它扩展了大历史的跨学科方法,以在全球范围内理解人类历史上的疾病模式、病因和影响。这种全面的方法整合了流行病学、遗传学、环境科学、社会学、历史和数据科学,通过广泛的历史和社会视角来应对当代和未来的公共卫生挑战。基础研究议程包括绘制疾病的历史发生情况及其随时间对社会的影响,利用考古发现、生物数据和历史记录。通过分析骨骼遗骸、古代DNA和文物,研究人员可以追踪疾病的起源和传播,比如黑死病。历史文献,包括编年史和医学论文,提供了关于过去疾病爆发、社会反应和破坏的背景叙述和定量数据。现代基因研究揭示了病原体的进化和传播模式以及人类对疾病的适应情况,为共同进化动态提供了见解。这种综合方法允许对疾病模式进行时空映射,将它们与社会动荡、人口变化和经济转型联系起来。大流行病学还研究环境变化和社会经济因素在疾病出现和再次出现中的作用,纳入气候科学、城市发展和经济史以指导公共卫生战略。该框架审视了历史和当代对大流行病的政策反应,旨在加强未来的全球卫生治理。通过解决伦理、法律和社会影响,大流行病学力求确保负责任和有效的流行病学研究及干预措施。这种方法旨在深刻影响我们理解、预防和应对疾病的方式,利用历史视角丰富现代科学探究和全球公共卫生战略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/90b0/11586986/99689066efc8/epidemiologia-05-00047-g001.jpg

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