Ybarra Michele L, Petras Hanno, Goodman Kimberly L, Mitchell Kimberly J
Center for Innovative Public Health Research, 555 N El Camino Real, San Clemente, CA, 92672, USA.
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Beltsville, MD, USA.
Prev Sci. 2024 Dec;25(8):1284-1297. doi: 10.1007/s11121-024-01747-x. Epub 2024 Nov 25.
To identify factors in adolescence that predict the onset of sexual violence in adolescence and young adulthood. Data were analyzed from six survey waves of the longitudinal Growing up with Media Study (2008-2018) conducted in the USA. Participants were 778 youth 13-18 years old at baseline, who completed online surveys assessing sexual violence behaviors and predictors. Sexual violence perpetration behaviors included sexual assault, rape, attempted rape, and coercive sex. Only 2% of females and 3% of males reported their first sexual violence perpetration by age 14. In contrast, by age 18, 6% of females and 12% of males had perpetrated their first sexual violence. For both males and females, the rate of the onset seems to plateau by age 22. Predictors of the onset of sexually violent behavior for those who began perpetrating when they were 14-17 years old were largely similar to those who began perpetrating when they were 18-25 years old. Alcohol plus other substance use, aggressive and delinquent behavior, caregiver monitoring, behavior problems at school, externalizing peers, exposure to community violence, and exposure to violent media were all implicated. Early prevention-well before college and perhaps even before high school-is needed to have an impact on the onset of sexual violence perpetration, as most perpetrators of sexual violence will have acted for the first time by age 23. Several modifiable risk factors observed in adolescence could signal the opportunity for targeted prevention to reduce the odds of onset of sexual violence.
识别青春期中能够预测青春期及青年期性暴力行为发生的因素。对美国开展的纵向“与媒体一起成长研究”（2008 - 2018年）的六个调查阶段的数据进行了分析。参与者为基线时年龄在13 - 18岁的778名青少年，他们完成了评估性暴力行为及预测因素的在线调查。性暴力犯罪行为包括性侵犯、强奸、强奸未遂和强迫性行为。只有2%的女性和3%的男性在14岁前报告了他们的首次性暴力犯罪行为。相比之下，到18岁时，6%的女性和12%的男性实施了他们的首次性暴力行为。对于男性和女性来说，性暴力行为的发生率在22岁时似乎趋于平稳。14 - 17岁开始实施性暴力行为者与18 - 25岁开始实施者的性暴力行为发生的预测因素大致相似。饮酒及其他物质使用、攻击性行为和违法行为、照顾者监督、学校行为问题、外化同伴、接触社区暴力以及接触暴力媒体都与之相关。需要在大学之前甚至高中之前就进行早期预防，才能对性暴力犯罪行为的发生产生影响，因为大多数性暴力犯罪者在23岁时就已首次实施犯罪行为。在青春期观察到的一些可改变的风险因素可能预示着有机会进行有针对性的预防，以降低性暴力行为发生的几率。
