A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for in Non-Ready-to-Eat Frozen Vegetables.

A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model was developed to evaluate the risk of invasive listeriosis from the consumption of non-ready-to-eat (non-RTE) frozen vegetables. On a lot basis, the QRA model simulates concentration and prevalence in a "Processing module" that comprises blanching, potential recontamination and packaging, any post-packaging inactivation treatment, and within-lot end-product testing and in a subsequent "Consumer's handling module" that encompasses portioning of frozen vegetables, defrosting, and cooking. Based on available published data, the model was coded in nine sequential R functions designed to assess the effectiveness of blanching, the improvement in processing environment hygiene, the implementation of sampling schemes at the end of processing, and improved consumer instructions on the product's package. In a reference scenario, the model estimated that 9.4% of 500 g packages of frozen vegetables would be contaminated, although at mean levels lower than 10 CFU/g, and assuming that 20% of the portions of frozen vegetables would be left to thaw at room temperature for 2 h, the lot-level mean risk of listeriosis in the susceptible population would be 2.935 × 10 (median 5.446 × 10) for uncooked 50 g servings and 2.765 × 10 (median 5.184 × 10) for cooked 50 g servings. Analysis of selected scenarios suggested that not cooking the non-RTE product contributes to the risk to a greater extent than the level of contamination in the incoming raw vegetables, the latter in turn being more influential than the level of contamination in the processing environment. The QRA model is freely available as an R package with full documentation and can be used as a tool to inform the consideration of strengthened risk management measures in view of the current changes in consumer behavior and new diet trends.