Chei Choy-Lye, Nakamura Sho, Watanabe Kaname, Watanabe Ryo, Kurokawa Akio, Iwane Taizo, Itoh Sayaka, Narimatsu Hiroto
Cancer Prevention and Control Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Research Institute, Yokohama, Japan.
Department of Genetic Medicine, Kanagawa Cancer Center, Yokohama, Japan.
Cancer Sci. 2025 Feb;116(2):488-499. doi: 10.1111/cas.16415. Epub 2024 Nov 28.
Projections of future gastric cancer incidence and the demand for health-care services for gastric cancer patients by geographic area will assist local authorities in determining health-care needs, allocating medical resources, and planning services. This study aims to project the future incidence of gastric cancer, estimate the number of patients per medical institution, and decompose the net changes in cases to assess the impact of population aging by geographic area. Our projections are based on population-based cancer registry data, census data from 2000 to 2020, and the projected population for 2025-2045 in Kanagawa, Japan. We classified Kanagawa into urban, town, outer city, and rural areas based on geographic and population features. The number of medical institutions providing gastric cancer treatment was used to estimate the number of patients per medical institution. We projected a decrease of 25%, 52%, and 5% in gastric cancer cases in towns, outer cities, and rural areas from 2020 to 2045, respectively. However, cases are expected to increase by 9% in urban areas, primarily due to population aging. The annual number of gastric cancer patients per medical institution in urban areas is expected to increase from 54 to 59, while numbers in other areas are predicted to decline from 2020 to 2045. Our long-term projections indicate that the number of older gastric cancer patients will continue to increase in urban areas. While current measures effectively reduce gastric cancer risk, they need to be revised to address the impact of population aging.
按地理区域预测未来胃癌发病率以及胃癌患者的医疗服务需求，将有助于地方当局确定医疗需求、分配医疗资源并规划服务。本研究旨在预测未来胃癌发病率，估计每个医疗机构的患者数量，并分解病例的净变化以评估地理区域内人口老龄化的影响。我们的预测基于日本神奈川县基于人群的癌症登记数据、2000年至2020年的人口普查数据以及2025年至2045年的预测人口。根据地理和人口特征，我们将神奈川县分为城市、城镇、外城和农村地区。提供胃癌治疗的医疗机构数量用于估计每个医疗机构的患者数量。我们预测，从2020年到2045年，城镇、外城和农村地区的胃癌病例数将分别减少25%、52%和5%。然而，城市地区的病例数预计将增加9%，主要原因是人口老龄化。预计城市地区每个医疗机构的胃癌患者年数量将从54人增加到59人，而其他地区的数量预计从2020年到2045年将下降。我们的长期预测表明，城市地区老年胃癌患者的数量将继续增加。虽然目前的措施有效地降低了胃癌风险，但需要进行修订以应对人口老龄化的影响。
