Narimatsu Hiroto, Sakaguchi Masahiko, Nakamura Sho, Katayama Kayoko
Cancer Prevention & Control Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Research Institute, Yokohama 241-8515, Japan.
Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Kawasaki, Kanagawa 210-0821, Japan.
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2020 Nov 3;13:2407-2414. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S277207. eCollection 2020.
The distribution of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change markedly in the future due to aging of the Japanese population. We assessed the expected incidence rates of leukemia, malignant lymphoma, and multiple myeloma using national population estimates and data from the Kanagawa Cancer Registry.
To evaluate the effects of community aging, we compared expected future incidences of hematological malignancies in Kanagawa with other three areas, namely the Yamagata, Osaka, and Nagasaki prefectures, which have different populations and predicted aging rates.
The total number of patients newly diagnosed with hematological malignancy in Kanagawa in 2010 was 1970. This was predicted to increase to 2581 by 2025 and to 2712 by 2040. Trends were very similar for all three hematological malignancies. These incidence rates were predicted to increase continuously in patients aged ≥65 years from 2010 to 2040, with a 169% increase in leukemia, a 167% increase in malignant lymphoma, and a 169% increase in multiple myeloma. A continuous increase in the population aged ≥65 years was also noted in the other three prefectures.
The distribution demographic of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change in the future as the number of elderly patients increases.
由于日本人口老龄化，预计未来血液系统恶性肿瘤患者的分布将发生显著变化。我们使用全国人口估计数和神奈川县癌症登记处的数据评估了白血病、恶性淋巴瘤和多发性骨髓瘤的预期发病率。
为评估社区老龄化的影响，我们将神奈川县血液系统恶性肿瘤的预期未来发病率与其他三个地区（即山形县、大阪府和长崎县）进行了比较，这三个地区的人口和预测老龄化率各不相同。
2010年神奈川县新诊断为血液系统恶性肿瘤的患者总数为1970人。预计到2025年将增至2581人，到2040年将增至2712人。这三种血液系统恶性肿瘤的趋势非常相似。预计从2010年到2040年，年龄≥65岁患者的这些发病率将持续上升，白血病增加169%，恶性淋巴瘤增加167%，多发性骨髓瘤增加169%。其他三个县年龄≥65岁的人口也持续增加。
随着老年患者数量的增加，预计未来血液系统恶性肿瘤患者的分布人口统计学将发生变化。
