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贝叶斯地理加性模型分析埃塞俄比亚孕产妇死亡的空间模式和决定因素。

Bayesian geo-additive model to analyze spatial pattern and determinants of maternal mortality in Ethiopia.

机构信息

Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Dambi Dollo University, Dambi Dollo, Ethiopia.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2024 Nov 29;24(1):3334. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20812-2.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-024-20812-2
PMID:39614213
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11606106/
Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Maternal mortality is defined as the death of a woman from any cause associated to or made worse by her pregnancy, either during her pregnancy or within 42 days of the pregnancy's termination, regardless of the length of the pregnancy or its location. The objective of this study is to determine the factors influencing maternal mortality as well as to examine the regional distribution of maternal deaths in Ethiopia.

METHOD

This study was conducted in Ethiopia and the data was basically secondary which is obtained from 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey (EDHS). The Bayesian Geo-additive regression model is used to identify the major risk factors and spatial effects (spatial pattern) on maternal death in Ethiopia.

RESULT

Pregnancy-related problems or childbirth were the cause of death for 1.43% of the 10,009 women in the research, whose ages ranged from 15 to 49. In contrast to the semi-parametric and generalized linear models, the Bayesian Geo-additive regression model is based on the DIC and better fits the data. According to the Bayesian Geo-additive regression model's results, maternal death is significantly affected by the place of delivery, the number of prenatal care visits, marital status, wealth index, mother's age and the number of birth orders. The Afar, Somali, Benishangul Gumuz, and Gambela regions have higher rates of maternal death, according to evidence of geographic variation in a model.

CONCLUSION

The findings of the study revealed that maternal mortality is influenced by numerous social, demographic, and geographic variables. Geographic variations exist in the patterns of maternal mortality.

摘要

背景和目的

孕产妇死亡率定义为妇女在妊娠或妊娠终止后 42 天内,因任何与妊娠有关或因妊娠而加重的原因而死亡,无论妊娠时间长短或地点如何。本研究的目的是确定影响孕产妇死亡的因素,并研究埃塞俄比亚孕产妇死亡的区域分布。

方法

本研究在埃塞俄比亚进行,数据主要来自 2016 年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查(EDHS)的二手资料。贝叶斯地理加性回归模型用于确定影响埃塞俄比亚孕产妇死亡的主要危险因素和空间效应(空间模式)。

结果

与 15 至 49 岁的 10009 名研究妇女的年龄相关的妊娠相关问题或分娩是导致 1.43%死亡的原因。与半参数和广义线性模型相比,贝叶斯地理加性回归模型基于 DIC,更适合数据。根据贝叶斯地理加性回归模型的结果,孕产妇死亡显著受到分娩地点、产前保健次数、婚姻状况、财富指数、母亲年龄和生育次数的影响。证据表明,在模型中存在地理变异,阿法尔、索马里、本尚古勒-古姆兹和甘贝拉地区的孕产妇死亡率较高。

结论

研究结果表明,孕产妇死亡率受到众多社会、人口和地理变量的影响。孕产妇死亡率的模式存在地理差异。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a246/11606106/771752921b36/12889_2024_20812_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a246/11606106/77c70950abd9/12889_2024_20812_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a246/11606106/771752921b36/12889_2024_20812_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a246/11606106/77c70950abd9/12889_2024_20812_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a246/11606106/771752921b36/12889_2024_20812_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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