Alberto Roann P, Teano Judith A, Paz-Alberto Annie Melinda, Tangonan Mark Anthony B, Villamar Hazel Jade E, Clement Sarah, Montagnes David J S, Morse Andrew P
College of Business Administration and Accountancy, Central Luzon State University, 3120 Science City of Munoz, Nueva Ecija Philippines.
Environmental Economics, College of Business Administration and Accountancy, Central Luzon State University, 3120 Science City of Munoz, Nueva Ecija Philippines.
Mar Life Sci Technol. 2024 Jun 5;6(4):610-630. doi: 10.1007/s42995-024-00231-3. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Climate change will impact coastal ecosystems, threatening subsistence fisheries including those in mangrove forests. Despite their global contributions and roles in nutrition and cultural identity, mangrove subsistence fisheries are poorly studied. Here, we offer a foundation for improving the management of mangrove subsistence fisheries to deal with the impending effects of climate change. This multidisciplinary review-drawing on organismal biology, ecology, fisheries, and social science-focuses on the climate impacts relevant to mangrove ecosystems: heat waves, low-category, and high-category typhoons. First, we provide an overview of the mangroves, their harvestable stocks (fish, crustaceans, molluscs), and the fishers, offering an understanding of how they may be affected by relevant environmental variables; i.e., shifts in temperature, salinity, oxygen, flooding, and sediments. Then, we examine the potential effects of climate change on mangrove stocks and fishers, indicating the scope of impending changes. By combining the above information, we develop a simple model that forecasts the number of "fishing-days" lost by fishers due to climate change over the next decade (between 11 and 21 days will be lost per year per fisher). This indicates which aspects of climate change will have the greatest impacts on stocks and fishers. We found that high-category typhoons had more impacts than heat waves, which in turn had a greater impact than low-category typhoons). Finally, recognising gaps in our knowledge and understanding, we offer recommendations for approaches for future work to improve our predictions.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00231-3.
气候变化将影响沿海生态系统，威胁包括红树林地区在内的自给性渔业。尽管红树林自给性渔业在全球营养供应和文化认同方面发挥着重要作用，但相关研究却很少。在此，我们为改善红树林自给性渔业管理以应对气候变化的迫在眉睫的影响奠定了基础。本多学科综述——借鉴生物生物学、生态学、渔业和社会科学——聚焦于与红树林生态系统相关的气候影响：热浪、低等级和高等级台风。首先，我们概述了红树林、其可捕捞资源（鱼类、甲壳类动物、软体动物）以及渔民，以了解它们可能如何受到相关环境变量的影响；即温度、盐度、氧气、洪水和沉积物的变化。然后，我们研究气候变化对红树林资源和渔民的潜在影响，指出即将发生的变化范围。通过整合上述信息，我们开发了一个简单模型，预测未来十年渔民因气候变化而损失的“捕鱼天数”（每位渔民每年将损失11至21天）。这表明气候变化的哪些方面将对资源和渔民产生最大影响。我们发现，高等级台风的影响比热浪更大，而热浪的影响又比低等级台风更大。最后，认识到我们在知识和理解上的差距，我们为未来工作的方法提供建议，以改进我们的预测。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s42995-024-00231-3获取的补充材料。
