Iervolino Iunio, Cito Pasquale, De Falco Melania, Festa Gaetano, Herrmann Marcus, Lomax Anthony, Marzocchi Warner, Santo Antonio, Strumia Claudio, Massaro Luigi, Scala Antonio, Scotto di Uccio Francesco, Zollo Aldo
Dipartimento di Strutture per l'Ingegneria e l'Architettura, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy.
IUSS - Scuola Universitaria Superiore di Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2024 Dec 2;15(1):10474. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55023-1.
Campi Flegrei is a densely populated volcanic area in Italy. Its inner caldera periodically experiences uplift and subsidence, known as bradyseism, also accompanied by seismic activity. In the last decade, with uplift rates up to 2 cm/month, about nine-thousand earthquakes were recorded. Upon request of the local administration, the most updated data were collected and analyzed to evaluate the risk management strategy consisting of structural retrofitting according to the building code. Here it is shown that the reference moment magnitude is in the range , based on fault mapping, geomorphological inference, earthquake relocation, stress-drop analysis, and ground motion modelling. Earthquake forecasting enabled computing the exceedance probabilities of these magnitudes. Earthquake engineering showed that the minimum magnitudes expected to cause exceedance of design ground motion, are larger than the reference magnitudes. Finally, the risk reduction implied by the safety levels of new constructions was assessed for reinforced concrete buildings.
坎皮弗莱格雷是意大利一个人口密集的火山地区。其内部火山口周期性地经历隆起和沉降，即所谓的缓震，同时还伴有地震活动。在过去十年中，隆起速率高达每月2厘米，记录到约9000次地震。应当地政府要求，收集并分析了最新数据，以评估由根据建筑规范进行结构改造组成的风险管理策略。在此表明，基于断层测绘、地貌推断、地震重新定位、应力降分析和地面运动建模，参考矩震级在 范围内。地震预测能够计算这些震级的超越概率。地震工程表明，预计会导致超过设计地面运动的最小震级大于参考震级。最后，评估了新建建筑安全水平对钢筋混凝土建筑所带来的风险降低情况。
