Ruan Yichen, Zhang Xiaoyi, Zhang Mingyu, Sun Feiyang, Chen Qiuxiao
School of Spatial Planning and Design, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou, 310015, China.
Department of Regional and Urban Planning, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 2;14(1):29861. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-81076-9.
Polycentric urban development is promoted by urban planners and policy makers for its perceived benefits of alleviating urban issues. Theoretically, a polycentric urban structure is formed when different demographic groups present a collection of diverse and unique housing location preferences. Yet, only limited empirical studies have fully captured the complex effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structures. Our study utilizes detailed demographic data and employs interpretable machine learning models to elucidate the nonlinear and synergistic relationship between demographic characteristics and the urban polycentric structure in the context of a city of 10 million population in China. When characterizing urban centers, the three most important demographic groups are young females, senior married couples, and middle-aged single individuals with basic education. Each urban center presents distinctive demographic compositions; for instance, middle-aged married individuals exerting a stronger influence in certain contexts, whereas in senior resident groups, married individuals have a more pronounced impact. Spatial heterogeneity is observed in the demographic profiles of urban centers; for instance, primary central cores are predominantly young, single females, whereas peripheral and secondary centers have stronger presence of highly educated residents.
城市规划者和政策制定者推动多中心城市发展，因为他们认为这有助于缓解城市问题。从理论上讲，当不同人口群体呈现出多样化且独特的住房选址偏好时，就会形成多中心城市结构。然而，只有有限的实证研究充分捕捉到了人口特征对城市多中心结构的复杂影响。我们的研究利用详细的人口数据，并采用可解释的机器学习模型，以阐明在中国一个拥有1000万人口的城市背景下，人口特征与城市多中心结构之间的非线性和协同关系。在描述城市中心时，三个最重要的人口群体是年轻女性、老年已婚夫妇以及具有基础教育水平的中年单身人士。每个城市中心都呈现出独特的人口构成；例如，中年已婚人士在某些情况下影响力更强，而在老年居民群体中，已婚人士的影响更为显著。在城市中心的人口概况中观察到空间异质性；例如，主要中心核心区域主要是年轻的单身女性，而周边和次级中心则有更多高学历居民。
